Friday, January 31, 2014

3 Advisor Business Models of the Future: Cambridge Investment Research

“Our New Century Council, a group of advisors age 45 and under, are currently looking to identify what the business model of the future will look like in 2025.”

No small order, but one Fairfield, Iowa-based Cambridge Investment Research is willing to take on.

“The reason we’re doing it is that we want to make sure our advisors and clients today, as well as the next generation, have the tools and resources they need,” Jeff Vivacqua, the Fairfield, IA-based firm’s first vice president of business strategy, explained. “It might be e-signature technology or money management platforms or whatever.”

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New Century Council members convened at Fidelity’s offices in Boston last April, he related, noting “we didn’t want it to just about technology, but about the overall business model as well.”

The group began the laborious task with a flowchart featuring clients at the top, all the different business models on the next level, the reps and advisors below that, Cambridge as the penultimate layer and finally “next steps” as the bottom outflow.

“The group discussed the individual rep model, how client relationships will be characterized, technology and the systems that will need to be developed (at both the advisor and client levels), as well as a number of other issues.”

From these, he added, three business models were identified:

“How do we now define what these three business models will need for the future? Those are the next steps at the bottom of the flowchart.”

Whether these business models exist in the wirehouse, broker-dealer or the RIA, where will Cambridge fall in the mix?

“Eric [Schwartz, Cambridge’s chairman and CEO] likes to point to the right, the left and somewhere in the middle,” Vivacqua answered. “That’s where Cambridge does and will exist, somewhere in the middle.”

He added that firms “have to consider the rep needs, the marketplace needs and then what the firm is capable of producing. A combination of all three drives intellectual change.”

Succession and next-gen issues are also major themes for council members. Obviously, the question is where firms will find successors and the next generation, but Vivacqua argued, it’s more than that.

“Some say the roles are shrinking, but it’s only because the next generation of advisors isn’t coming from traditional sources.”

Wherever they come from, he concluded that Cambridge feels a “residency-type approach” is what’s needed.

“Studies show that the more acclimated a younger rep gets to the client relationship, the more successful they will be. Doctors immediately start medical students on the interaction with patients—their bedside manner—and our belief is that same type of internship is needed. So now I will connect those dots and say that will impact your business just as much as any technology will.”

 

 

 

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

South Africa joins battle against sell-off

the fragile five

Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey make up the so-called "fragile five" emerging markets. Three have raised interest rates this week.

LONDON (CNNMoney) India, Turkey and now South Africa.

Central banks in three of the most fragile emerging markets have jacked up interest rates to try to shore up their currencies as cash flows back to recovering developed economies.

South Africa surprised investors with its decision Wednesday to raise interest rates, just hours after a dramatic hike in Turkey and a more modest move in India.

The central banks are reacting to developments in the U.S., where the economy and job market is improving. The recovery has prompted the Federal Reserve to start cutting back on its stimulus program, which has been flooding international markets with liquidity.

Now that the flow of cheap money has started to slow, investors are focusing once again on the underlying health of the emerging markets.

The South African central bank noted many nations were facing "sharply depreciating currencies, capital outflows, slowing growth, rising inflation, significant current account and/or fiscal deficits and deteriorating confidence."

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"While the Fed action signals a recovery in the U.S., and the U.K. economic outlook is also improving, it does not mean that the global financial crisis is over," it said in a statement explaining the rate hike. "We are now entering a phase of the crisis that is creating new challenges for emerging market economies."

A tumbling currency can drive up inflation, but rate rises risk choking off already slowing growth.

The central bank action appeared to be backfiring Wednesday. The T! urkish lira and the South African rand both fell by about 3% against the dollar. The rupee was also weaker.

Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) coined the term 'the fragile five' last year to describe South Africa, Turkey, India, Brazil and Indonesia, nations that it considered particularly vulnerable to a sudden flight of capital.

"This is clearly a new risk on the horizon, and it needs to be watched," said the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, during a talk on Saturday in Davos, Switzerland.

Goldman exec: World needs faster growth   Goldman exec: World needs faster growth

Brazil and Indonesia have also been raising interest rates over the past few months. Brazil's latest rate hike came on January 15, while Indonesia's central bank announced a surprise increase in November.

But the flow of money back to the U.S. and other developed economies is unlikely to affect all emerging markets uniformly. Investors will take into account local factors such as political stability, commitment to reform, and signs of financial weakness.

Turmoil in emerging markets hit international stock markets this week, with the Dow Jones industrial average suffering a rare 5-day losing streak. To top of page

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Stocks: How Big a Problem are Earnings?

With earnings season in full swing–and bellwethers like Microsoft (MSFT), Bank of America (BAC) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) already reporting–its clear that earnings are still growing–just not as fast as some had expected.

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Deutsche Bank’s David Bianco and team, for instance, lowered their earnings growth forecast in a report on Friday. They explain why:

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We still think 4Q results will be the strongest S&P EPS and sales growth since 1Q12, but is unlikely to be double-digit as we were previously forecasting. We cut our 4Q13E EPS to $28.50, up 8% y/y from $29.00, up 10% y/y previously. 4Q results are healthy, but are softer than what macro data, particularly US and global PMIs suggested. Generating strong operating profit growth remains difficult given: 1) slow loan growth at Banks, 2) moderate capex growth  (Industrials healthy, Tech still slow), and 3) intense competition at most Consumer industries.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker and team don’t believe the rate of growth will matter to investors as long as earnings continue to grow:

With 31% of the S&P 500 market cap reported, aggregate earnings are tracking 4.5% ahead of expectations. Financials have had strong results, on net, with beats from both [Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase] (both in our portfolio). Exfinancials, the earnings upside has been 4.0%, driven in large part by technology ([Microsoft, Oracle (ORCL) (December), and SanDisk (SNDK)], among others). Our view is the recent market sell-off will abate as we doubt investors will worry about a real corporate earnings decline, something we think is required for a material market decline.

Shares of Microsoft have dropped 1.3% to $36.33 today at 2:21 p.m., while Bank of America has dipped 0.3% to $16.40, JPMorgan Chase has gained 0.6% to $55.44, Oracle has fallen 1.2% to $36.68 and SanDisjk is up 0.3% at $69.67.

Monday, January 27, 2014

5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- There isn't a day that goes by on Wall Street when certain stocks trading for $10 per share or less don't experience massive spikes higher. Traders savvy enough to follow the low-priced names and trade them with discipline and sound risk management are banking ridiculous coin on a regular basis.

Just take a look at some of the hot movers in the under-$10 complex from Thursday, including Tianli Agritech (OINK), which is skyrocketing higher by 31%; Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI), which is soaring by 21%; Houston American Energy (HUSA), which is ripping higher by 12.7%; and Golden Star Resources (GSS), which is spiking higher by 11.6%. You don't even have to catch the entire move in lower-priced stocks such as these to make outsized returns when trading.

One low-priced stock that recently soared higher was alternative energy player China Ming Yang Wind Power (MY), which I highlighted in Sept. 19's "5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar" at $1.74 per share. I mentioned in that piece that shares of China Ming Yang Wind Power were uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares soaring higher from its low of $1.48 to its recent high of $1.92 a share. That move was quickly pushing shares of MY within range of triggering a major breakout trade above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.78 to $1.92 a share.

Guess what happened? Shares of China Ming Yang Wind Power didn't take long to trigger that breakout, since the stock took out those key resistance levels the following week with monster upside volume. This stock has exploded to the upside with shares making a new 52-week high today at $2.88 a share. That represents a gain of over 60% in just a couple of weeks for anyone who played this breakout. You can see here that when breakouts trigger with volume a stock can make a very explosive move in a relatively short timeframe.

Low-priced stocks are something that I tweet about on a regular basis. I frequently flag high-probability setups, breakout candidates and low-priced stocks that are acting technically bullish. I like to hunt for low-priced stocks that are showing bullish price and volume trends, since that increases the probability of those stocks heading higher. These setups often produce monster moves higher in very short time frames.

I'm not as eager to recommend investing long-term in stocks that trade less than $10 a share because these names can be very speculative, and the odds for picking the long-term winners aren't great. But I definitely love to trade stocks that are priced below $10. I like to view them as a trading vehicle with lots of volatility and lots of upside when the trade is timed right.

When I trade under-$10 names, I do it almost entirely based off of the charts and technical analysis. I also like to find under-$10 names with a catalyst, but that's secondary to the chart and volume patterns.

With that in mind, here's a look at several stocks trading for $10 or less that look poised to potentially trade higher from current levels.

Rexahn Pharmaceuticals

One under-$10 biopharmaceutical player that's just starting to move into breakout territory is Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (RNN), which is engaged in the development of novel treatments for cancer to patients. This stock has been on fire so far in 2013, with shares up sharply by 62%.

If you take a look at the chart for Rexahn Pharmaceuticals, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong for the last month, with shares moving higher from its low of 36 cents per share to its intraday high of 53 cents per share. During that uptrend, shares of RNN have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of RNN into breakout territory above some near-term overhead resistance levels at 49 cents to 50 cents per share. It's worth noting that volume today is tracking in extremely strong with over 3 million shares traded, versus its three-month average action of 1.22 million shares.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in RNN if it manages to break out above Thursday's intraday high of 53 cents per share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.22 million shares. If that breakout hits soon, then RNN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at 64 cents to its 52-week high at 66 cents per share. Any high-volume move above 66 cents to 67 cents per share could then send RNN towards its next major overhead resistance levels at 81 cents per share.

Traders can look to buy RNN off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day moving average at 47 cents per share. One can also buy RNN off strength once it clears 53 cents per share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Pixelworks

A semiconductor stock that looks poised for higher prices is Pixelworks (PXLW), which designs, develops and markets video and pixel processing semiconductors and software for high-end digital video applications. This stock has been in play with the bulls so far in 2013, with shares up by 104%.

If you take a look at the chart for Pixelworks, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending for the last month and change, with shares moving higher from its low of $3.63 to its intraday high of $4.74 a share. During that uptrend, shares of PXLW have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now started to push shares of PXLW into breakout territory above $4.58 a share with strong upside volume flows. Volume so far today has already surpassed 1 million shares, which is well above its three-month average action of 334,348 shares.

Market players should now look for long-biased trades in PXLW if it manages to break out above Thursday's intraday high of $4.74 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 334,348 shares. If we get that move soon, then PXLW will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $5.30 a share. Any high-volume move above $5.30 will then give PXLW a chance to tag $6 a share.

Traders can look to buy PXLW off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day moving average of $3.92 a share, or below some more support at $3.80 a share. One can also buy PXLW off strength once it clears $4.74 a share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

BioTelemetry

Coming it at just above $10 is BioTelemetry (BEAT), which provides ambulatory, continuous, real-time outpatient management solutions for monitoring relevant and timely clinical information regarding an individual's health. This stock has been exploding to the upside in 2013, with shares up a whopping 342%.

If you take a look at the chart for BioTelemetry, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong for the last four months, with shares moving higher from its low of $3.09 to its recent high of $10.90 a share. During that uptrend, shares of BEAT have been making mostly higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of BEAT within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BEAT if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $10.63 to its 52-week high at $10.90 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 833,131 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then BEAT will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $13 to $15 a share.

Traders can look to buy BEAT off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support levels at $9.52 to $8.94 a share, or just below its 50-day at $8.51 a share. One can also buy BEAT off strength once it clears those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Revolution Lighting Technologies

Another under-$10 stock that's starting to move within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Revolution Lightning Technologies (RVLT), which designs, manufactures, markets and sells, commercial grade, LED replacement lamps, LED fixtures and LED-based signage, channel-letter and contour lighting products. This stock has been a monster for the bulls so far in 2013, with shares up a whopping 445%.

If you take a look at the chart for Revolution Lightning Technologies, you'll notice that this stock has recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $2.19 to $2.22 a share. Following that bottom, shares of RVLT exploded to the upside and hit a recent high of $3.96 a share with strong upside volume flows. Shares of RVLT are now finding some buying interest right around its 50-day moving average of $3.36 a share. If that level can hold, then RVLT will set up to resume its uptrend and potentially trigger another big breakout trade.

Market players should now look for long-biased trades in RVLT if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $3.70 to $3.80 a share and then above more resistance at $3.96 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 1.21 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then RVLT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $4.94 to $5.50 a share.

Traders can look to buy RVLT off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day moving average at $3.36 a share, or around $3 a share. One can also buy RVLT off strength once it clears those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Inuvo

One more under-$10 stock that looks ready to trigger a major breakout trade is Inuvo (INUV), which develops software and analytics technology that is accessible over the internet for use by online advertisers and website publishers. This stock is off to a strong start in 2013, with shares up by 37%.

If you take a look at the chart for Inuvo, you'll notice that this stock has been uptrending strong for the last three months, with shares soaring higher from its low of 70 cents per share to its recent high of $1.33 a share. During that uptrend, shares of INUV have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of INUV within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in INUV if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance at $1.33 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 119,317 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then INUV will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 52-week high at $2.12 a share to $2.25 to $2.50 a share.

Traders can look to buy INUV off weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some near-term support at $1.20 to $1.15 a share, or around its 50-day at $1.10 a share. One can also buy INUV off strength once it clears $1.33 a share with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

To see more hot under-$10 equities, check out the Stocks Under $10 Setting Up to Explode portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

[video] Cramer Quick Take: Under Armour Runs Higher

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- TheStreet's Jim Cramer tells "Mad Money" research director Nicole Urken that Under Armour (UA) is one of his favorite technology stocks.

Cramer says Under Armour is a technical apparel company and a "stealth" play on technology.

The company continues to innovate and consumers love the brand. That allows it to continue to command premium pricing, according to Cramer.

Under Armour has a market cap of just $8.5 billion, much smaller than Nike's (NKE) $60 billion, so Under Armour has a lot of potential to go higher, despite being up 66% in 2013, according to Cramer. With just a small share in the international market, Cramer said the company has a ton of opportunity abroad and that CEO Ken Plank is a very competitive leader. He concluded that the stock has plenty of upside remaining and those who have betted against the company based on valuation have been wrong so far. At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in stocks mentioned. -- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich. Follow @BretKenwell

Friday, January 24, 2014

What Do We 'Owe' Our Parents?

By Suzanne Gerber, editor of the Living & Learning channel for Next Avenue

Talk about a hot-button issue. With almost 6 million Americans 85 or older, a number expected to jump up to more than 14 million by 2040, our country is struggling to provide adequate care.

Last June, More magazine conducted a nationwide survey of 751 men and women 18 and older with the hopes of giving some definition and parameters to this situation. In their September issue (and coming to More.com on October 22) they published the results of this enlightening study.

If you could reduce the findings to one sentence, it would be that most Americans (81%) plan to help care for their aging parents. That's the good news. But the not-so-good news is that more than a quarter said they didn't know what was involved or how to plan for it. (Obviously they're not reading NextAvenue.)

(MORE: How to Care for Your Parent Without Losing Your Job)

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The survey also found that men are more optimistic about eldercare than women are. "The reason men have a more positive attitude is that a lot of them take a can-do approach to family life," noted Lisa Gwyther, director of the Family Support Program at Duke University Center for the Study of Aging. "They view it as 'This is a problem to be solved; I can fix this.' Women may be more aware of grief, sadness and loss, as well as how the burden of eldercare is affecting them."

Many experts also feel there could be a "perception vs. reality" gap. They note that women still do the bulk of the work. As More reported, women tend to "assume an emotional, nurturing role and handle personal tasks such as bathing, while men take on more practical chores, like handling finances or house repairs."

It's not that women aren't willing to take on financial responsibility. It's just that across every age group they don't always have the means, or the confidence in their financial future, to make the offer.

Another question the survey asked was what people would be willing to give up to care for their parents. The findings: daily lifestyle, 55% (60% women, 50% men); big-ticket items like car, vacations, electronics: 38%; retirements savings: 23%; value of own home: 15%; children's education fund: 7%.

But the question that really got me thinking — and feeling and projecting into my own life — was about motivation: why the respondents would act the way they said they would. Almost half (46%) said it was out of a sense of duty, a quarter (26%) said out of love, and 11% said they felt it was their moral obligation.

(MORE: How to Be a Loving Advocate for Your Parents)

What Do You Feel You Owe Your Parents?

Among my peers, conversations about our parents are frequent, but interestingly, the question "what do we 'owe' them" has never come up. So when I heard about the More survey, I reached out to a number of them to hear their thoughts.

A younger friend with still-robust, independent parents doesn't feel any sense of debt. "But I want to give them love and friendship and all the support that I can give them (and that they are willing to accept from me)." Her story is complicated by the fact that her folks, who live 3,000 miles away, are fundamentalist Christians and she's gay.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Ask Matt: Should investors bet on marijuana?

USA TODAY markets reporter Matt Krantz answers a different reader question every weekday. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com.

Q: Is there money to be made investing in pot?

A: Legalizing marijuana is a trend that's taking hold in the U.S. But despite what investors might think about the development, and if it's good for society, many are looking ways to profit from the trend.

So far, the stock market isn't a great place to play this development. A vast majority of the marijuana companies that have shares that can be bought and sold are penny stocks. Most of the stocks, ranging from GreenGro Technologies to Medical Marijuana, Hemp and Growlife, trade on the OTC Bulletin Board marketplace for less than a dollar a share. These companies do not have to meet any kind of listing standards, such as having a market value of a certain level or have investor safeguards such as an independent board of directors.

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Another strike against these stocks is that they're highly volatile and targeted by speculators. It's not uncommon for the stocks to rise or fall by more than 10% in a single trading session. That's what happens when speculation meets a vacuum of information.

There's no question there's money to be made from the proliferation of legal pot usage across the country. And there could be some indirect benefits. Real estate investment trusts that own strip mall property, for instance, might benefit from an influx of these new tenants. But for most investors, it's best to leave this speculative play alone, or risk seeing a part of portfolios go up in smoke.

Follow Matt Krantz on Twitter: @mattkrantz.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Six Ways To Help Transition A Loved One To Assisted Living: The Inside Story

assisted livingWhen my 63 year old brother, Robert, had a massive, paralyzing stroke, the doctors thought he wouldn't make it.  Things looked very grim. Until he stood up by the side of his bed a few days later and tried to get to the bathroom.  That began his remarkable road to recovery.  He's still on it.

Fast forward three months, and lots of rehab later and it's time to leave the skilled nursing facility.  I wonder how many of us have been or will be in this situation, figuring out the next next step for someone who can't live alone again after being hospitalized. It could be your aging parent. It could be your spouse or partner. It could be you.

My brother still has some issues that would make it unsafe for him to live alone. The stroke left him unable to read and speak clearly.  So, looking for a place for him took family effort.  A good place was located. Then came the transition.

As an advocate for people who have aging parents, I talk about the issues of transition all the time. I consult with families and teach them how to stand up for their loved ones to ensure their safety. Now it was time for me to practice what I preached.  First step:  call a meeting (care conference) with the staff at the rehab facility.  You may not know you can ask for this, but you do have a right to know your loved one's status and what the recommendations are for ongoing care. You can request and attend a care conference.  At our conference, everyone agreed that assisted living would be a good solution.

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Next step:  set up a target date for the move. In our case, that meant clearing out his old apartment, getting rid of excess for a smaller apartment, and getting his belongings moved to the new place in assisted living.

As a retired RN, who formerly had the job of seeing patients through transitions from hospital to home, I knew what could go wrong in these situations.  Medications get  mixed up, things get lost, communication is less than ideal.  So, I recommend getting a written summary of your loved one's status from the nursing home or hospital and recommendations for further care, plus a list of all medications he is to be taking.  Got that and provided it to assisted living.

Next, we have another brother who was able to stay with Robert, on move-in day.  He was very kind and oriented Robert to the place.  He showed him how to work things and where to find things. Robert was able to start unpacking and settling in.  I recommend staying with your loved one for the day he or she must move. It can help ease the anxiety.

After that, there was the seemingly endless round of phone calls I had to make to coordinate care.  One of the medications should have been discontinued and it wasn't. Call the doctor and get that cleared up. Another medication. a new one, hadn't been started. Call the nurse and get that going. Call the front desk and ask for various overlooked items.  Review the list.  Add details. Finally, I gave a written summary of Robert's likes and dislikes, his preferences and needs to the director so that all the staff of caregivers could share and understand their new resident better.  I was his voice, given his trouble communicating.

So far, so good. He is doing very well. He likes it there and it is a huge relief.

For those who must deal with any transition for a loved one from a hospital or other care setting, it can be helpful to have a list of what you can do to help. Here's my summary of six things that can help you.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Can Best Buy Stock Rebound?

With shares of Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) trading around $27, is BBY an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Best Buy is a multinational retailer of consumer electronics, computing and mobile phone products, entertainment products, appliances, and related services. The company operates retail stores and call centers, and conducts online retail operations under a range of brand names like Best Buy, Best Buy Mobile, The Carphone Warehouse, Five Star, Future Shop, Geek Squad, Magnolia Audio Video, Pacific Sales, and The Phone House. Best Buy operates in two segments: domestic and international.

Best Buy watched its stock plunge more than 27 percent in morning trading Thursday after announcing poor holiday results that suffered from heavy competition and deep discounting. The consumer electronics retailer said revenue for the nine weeks ended Jan. 4 slumped 2.6 percent to $11.45 billion from the same period a year earlier. Same store sales slipped 0.9 percent in the U.S., though they managed at 0.1 percent boost internationally.

In late morning trading in New York, Best Buy stock tanked nearly 28 percent, or $10.45, to $27.11 a share. Hubert Joly, chief executive of the Minneapolis chain, blamed an epidemic of deals, discounts and bargains across the industry. "The promotional intensity that began with Black Friday continued throughout the period, which led us and our competitors to answer one question — do we make the incremental investment necessary to be price competitive and defend our market share?" Joly said in a statement. "For us, there was only one answer." But the rampant price slashing "did not result in higher industry demand and had a deflationary impact on our revenue," Joly said.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

Best Buy stock has been pulling back in recent times. The stock is currently trading at lows for the year and may need time to stabilize before heading higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Best Buy is trading below its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

BBY

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(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Best Buy options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Best Buy options

51.03%

96%

93%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

February Options

Steep

Average

March Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Best Buy’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Best Buy look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

633.33%

23.08%

95.11%

-107.14%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-0.20%

-11.82%

-19.21%

-5.23%

Earnings Reaction

-10.97%

13.24%

-4.36%

4.57%

Best Buy has seen increasing earnings and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been disappointed with Best Buy’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Best Buy stock done relative to its peers, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), and sector?

Best Buy

Amazon

Apple

Wal-Mart

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-32.70%

-0.02%

-0.92%

-2.38%

-2.10%

Best Buy has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Best Buy is a provider of electronics and related products and services to consumers and growing companies worldwide. The company watched its stock plunge more than 27 percent in morning trading Thursday after announcing poor holiday results that suffered from heavy competition and deep discounting. The stock has been pulling back in recent times and is currently trading at lows for the year. Over the last four quarters, investors have been disappointed as earnings have been increasing and revenues have been decreasing. Relative to its peers and sector, Best Buy has been a poor year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Best Buy does this quarter.

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Financials Take the Market Down

There were some big disappointments in the financial sector yesterday, writes MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, however, he does feel that there might be some good news coming from some financial institutions today.

Not surprising that the financial sector led the US market down yesterday. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index (SPX) closed down 0.13% on January 16 as the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) dropped 0.63%.

Yesterday's villain was a big miss by Citigroup (C) before the open. Today doesn't look a whole lot better for the sector because, after the close on January 16, American Express (AXP), Capital One (COF), and Sallie Mae (SLM) all reported significant earnings misses. American Express came in with fourth quarter earnings of $1.21 a share versus a consensus projection of $1.25. Capital One reported $1.45 a share instead of $1.57. And student loan company Sallie Mae announced 61 cents a share versus the analyst consensus of 73 cents a share.

The three stocks were down 0.14%, 2.21%, and 5.08% in after-hours trading.

American Express was the victim of expectations that were a bit too heady. The company just about matched Wall Street's projected revenue number at $8.54 billion (just shy of consensus at $8.55 billion) and came in just a few pennies short on earnings per share, despite solid cuts to operating expenses (down 8%), an increase of 8% in spending by card members, and a drop in reserves for loan losses of 17% from the fourth quarter of 2012. Wall Street wanted more after the 59.3% return for the stock in 2013.

On the other hand, Capital One reported the kind of bad news we've heard from banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup C. Revenue dropped 1.4% from the fourth quarter of 2012. Loan growth was worse than piddling, with auto loans falling by 3% and home loans declining by 4%. Net interest margins declined 16 basis points and provision for credit losses increased 13%.

These results, unfortunately for the sector, echoed Citigroup's earnings report before the open yesterday. The bank reported 85 cents a share in earnings when Wall Street was looking for 99 cents (or 95 cents, depending on what consensus counter you follow.) The culprits were weaker than expected revenue, higher than expected provisions for loan losses, and greater than expected expenses. (Citigroup is a member of my Jubak's Picks portfolio.)

The good news for the sector and the market is that today's financial reporting from banks is dominated by regionals and that group has been doing better than the big money center banks. For example, PNC Financial Services (PNC), which reported yesterday, January 16, beat the consensus earnings estimate of $1.63 by 22 cents a share. Revenue also came in higher than expected at $4.07 billion versus the consensus of $3.83 billion.

"Better" is a relative term, of course. Things are tough, even for the regionals. Loans at PNC, for example, grew by just 1% in the quarter. And the bank did tell Wall Street to expect that revenue for the 2014 fiscal year would be lower than in fiscal 2013.

Today's financial service sector reports include regionals Sun Trust Bank (STI) and Comerica (CMA), plus Wall Street's Morgan Stanley (MS).

Full disclosure: I don't own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. When in 2010 I started the mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund, I liquidated all my individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did not own shares of any stock mentioned in this post as of the end of December. For a full list of the stocks in the fund, see the fund's portfolio here. For more of Jim's posts and picks check out his free site here or his subscription site here.

Friday, January 17, 2014

The Investor’s Conundrum: Buy What’s Popular or Buy What Lasts?

Are you an investor/speculator who likes to jump aboard a moving train because you believe it will pick up even more speed (and aren't particularly concerned about when or whether it will crash)? Or are you, perhaps, more inclined to do what value investors do: peruse the railroad cars still being loaded in the yards, believing that their value will never be less than that point at which they are earning no return for their owners, but will have increasingly obvious value as soon as they are placed into service once more?

In purely investing terms, represented by the more abstract thoughts above, are you a value investor or a relative momentum buyer? Your answer to this question is crucial. It determines what publications you read, what websites you frequent and your general level of satisfaction with your investing results.

Here's a fine example today. Some of our clients have owned Apple (AAPL, as if I had to tell you!) and enjoyed a fine ride with it. But today we are all out of it. (Though many of us own, with tight trailing stops, the Technology Select Index, XLK, in which AAPL is 21% of the portfolio, and certain S&P ETFs which attribute 15% of their growth in value this quarter to AAPL.)

Apple (AAPL) is now paying a dividend, they are doing a stock buyback and, yes, this premier American growth company only sells at the same market multiple as the S&P 500. The question becomes: Can they continue to wow us all and bring their sales down to the bottom line in the form of forever-growing earnings? Are they the next IBM, a technology firm that has reinvented itself ever since it was formed in 1912? Or are they, as salesmen used to say in the Go-Go 1960s when touting a new concept stock, "The next Xerox!!" The next Polaroid!!" or "The next Kodak!" Polaroid and so many others soared to magnificent heights, then plunged, then when bankrupt.

For the true believers out there shouting, "This time it's different," I agree that AAPL just may be another IBM. AA! PL could, like IBM, have enlightened leadership over the years and be willing to re-invent itself along the way. But then I think about Xerox (XRX), which once had every bit as many analysts, technicians and investors singing its praises as AAPL does now. Fickle fellows, all:

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If you are a long-suffering holder of XRX, it could be worse. What if you had purchased Juniper Networks (JNPR) a year or so after its IPO?

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Or how about Cisco (CSCO) back when it was the "Backbone of the Internet" with no serious competitor in sight?

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Or, more recently, Yahoo! (YHOO)...

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It isn't my intent to disparage any of these companies, living or dead. Unlike, say, Enron or Worldcomm, none of them sought to defraud investors or even allow that level of management hubris. Nor am I denigrating Apple; it's been awfully good to some of us. My point is merely to note that those of us of a certain age have seen it all before; sometimes it ended well and sometimes not so well. Apple may or may not be priced for perfection, but it is certainly well-priced. Forewarned is forearmed and trailing stops are a value investor's best friend.

Apple has been one fast wabbit this quarter. Most holders of the stock will hold tight, expecting a similar run in the next year (or six weeks). They will read the most favorable news items and reviews of the stock to buttress their conviction and eschew looking at charts like those of the Shiller Data below. I hope it works out for them. Apple may be on their side, but history is not.

As my friend and competitor Sy Harding wrote in his free blo! g on Marc! h 31: "[Apple is] so profitable that if its earnings were left out, S&P 500 earnings for the 4th quarter would have been 3.0% instead of 6.1%. That would double the P/E ratio of the S&P 500, which is touted as still being undervalued… It's estimated that the 21% earnings increase for the tech sector over the last 12 months was actually only 5% when Apple's earnings are taken out. The difference is shown in this chart produced by Barclay's Capital, the blue line being tech sector earnings [ex] Apple."

Top 5 Clean Energy Stocks To Watch Right Now

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Ouch. This says less about Apple than it does about the Nasdaq "rally," the tech sector and the market in general. I think we'll be placing more trailing stops, even on our "good stuff."

Disclosure: We are out of AAPL for now. Apres le deluge, we're happy to take a fresh look at it. If we're wrong, there are always new tech stocks to entice, delight and, occasionally, even to profit from.

The Fine Print: As Registered Investment Advisors, we see it as our responsibility to advise the following: we do not know your personal financial situation, so the information contained in this communiqué represents the opinions of the staff of Stanford Wealth Management, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, rather an obvious statement but clearly too often unheeded judging by the number of investors who buy the current #1 mutual fund only to watch it plummet next month.

We encourage you to do your own research on individual issues we recommend for your analysis to see if they might be of value in your own investing. We take our responsibility to proffer intelligent commentary seriously, but it should not be assumed that investing in any securiti! es we are! investing in will always be profitable. We do our best to get it right, and we "eat our own cooking," but we could be wrong, hence our full disclosure as to whether we own or are buying the investments we write about.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

e-Commerce Stock Update - July 2013 (pt. 2) - Zacks ...

This is part two of our e-Commerce Industry Outlook. Click here to read part one.

Although retail e-Commerce is the segment that most of us are interested in, it is in fact just a part of the overall e-Commerce market. In fact, retailers and service providers generate just 4.7% and 3.0%, respectively of their revenues online, a slightly higher percentage than they did in the prior year. The U.S. Census Bureau categorizes these two segments as business-to-consumer.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the manufacturing sector is the largest contributor to e-commerce sales (49.3% of their total shipments), followed by merchant wholesalers (24.3% of their total sales). These two segments make up the business-to-business category.

This places the business-to-business category at 90% of total e-Commerce sales, with the balance coming from the business-to-consumer category. The latest numbers from the Bureau suggest that the fastest-growing segments were retail and wholesale. [All the above data from the U.S. Census Bureau relate to 2011, as published in May 2013]

The industry is evolving very rapidly, so data collection and evaluation are particularly difficult. Consequently, one has to rely largely on surveys by both government and private agencies.

In this section, we will discuss segments of the e-Commerce market than do not relate directly to the retail of goods, and discuss instead travel, payments, security and advertising.

Travel

The U.S. Commerce Department expects international travel to the U.S. to continue increasing over the next few years. Visitor volume is currently expected to increase 6-8% a year from 2012 to 2016 leading to a 49% increase in the number of users during the period.

Visitors from the Middle East are expected to be the slowest-growing (29%). South America, Asia and Oceania growth rates are expected to be comparable at 83%, 82% and 82%, respectively.

The fastest growth is expected to come from China (232%), Sou! th Korea (200%), Brazil (150%), Russian Federation (139%) and India (94%). Travel and tourism is one of the country's strongest industries, contributing a trade surplus in each of the last 20 years.

The top travel booking sites are Booking.com, Expedia.com, Hotels.com, Priceline.com, Kayak.com (acquired by Priceline), Travelocity.com, Orbitz.com and Hotwire.com. Since Booking.com and Kayak are part of Priceline (PCLN) and both Hotels.com and Hotwire.com part of Expedia (EXPE), this narrows down the top companies in the segment to Priceline, Expedia, Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) and Travelocity. However, there are several others worth considering that include Ctrip International (CTRP), MakeMyTrip (MMYT) and TripAdvisor (TRIP), which was spun off from Expedia.

The global travel market grew 4% in 2012 and is expected to grow another 2-3% this year. The Asia/Pacific region is expected to see the strongest growth (up 6%), followed by Europe and South America (mainly Brazil) at 2% each. North America (mainly U.S.) is expected to be flat this year. [World Travel Monitor 2012]

According to the April 2013 TravelClick North American Hospitality Review (NAHR), both occupancy and average daily rates (ADRs) in North America are seeing steady growth this year, with individual bookings (both leisure and business) doing better than group bookings. In the second quarter of 2013, total travel occupancy growth was 3.6% from last year with ADR growth even better at 3.8%.

Online travel agents (OTAs) are growing the fastest this year – up 13.7% in the first quarter, according to the TravelClick North American Distribution Review (NADR). The hotels' own websites were up 5.0%, with direct walk-ins and calls to the hotel growing 3.7%. The areas of weakness were the global distribution system used by travel agents and CRS (calls to a hotel's toll-free number).

Share of individual bookings-



Global corporate travel bookings were up 8.8% in April, according to Pegasus Solutions, which is the single largest processor of electronic hotel transactions. This is the highest volume growth through GDSs since August 2011.

Smartphones are playing a key role in travel purchases, especially for last minute purchases. eMarketer expects smartphone travel researchers in the U.S. to grow to 50 million or 40% of all digital travel researchers this year, with total U.S. mobile travel sales touching $13.6 billion.

The top site for travel content is TripAdvisor, visited by 60% of Americans when choosing a hotel. Google's (GOOG) YouTube is now growing in popularity and is the second in line, according to MMGY Global's 2013 Portrait of American Travelers study.

Another report by PhocusWright mentioned that when online penetration of the travel market reached 35% in any country, growth rates were likely to slow down to single-digits. The research firm mentioned that only the U.S., U.K. and Scandinavia had reached this level of penetration and most other markets across Europe, Asia and Latin America would continue to show good growth rates.

Payment Systems

With practically all market research indicating solid growth in e-Commerce sales over the next few years, online players are vying with each other to come out with convenient and secure payment solutions.

The FIS Mobile Wallet from Fidelity National Information Services Inc. (FIS) is basically a bar code reader that feeds information related to the purchase into the user's smartphone and uses it as a medium to transfer the information to the cloud. Online purchase of merchandise is also possible. The solution provides good security, since the transaction is carried out entirely in the cloud through the retailer's and banker's applications and personal information is not shared at the time of purchase.

QR code payments have already been made by most smartphone users in the U.S. an! d the tec! hnology is moving mainstream. However, the safety of the system comes at a price, which is the time it takes to complete a transaction. This is the reason that Google is still hanging on to its digital wallet.

Google's digital wallet allows a customer to make a payment by waving his mobile phone over a POS terminal. Other than the convenience of the whole thing, the main attraction being highlighted is the security of the payment channel, since neither the customer nor the retailer would be recording the personal information related to the customer. Adoption of the device, although it is some way off, will have a remarkable effect on the volume and value of mobile transactions, since it should increase the percentage of higher-value sales.

However, the cost of POS terminals is a downside to the system that could easily turn away retail partners. This is an evolving area and much could change over the next few years.

Visa (V) has also jumped on the bandwagon, claiming that its V.me is a digital wallet with a difference. Not only can it be used to make mobile contactless payments (bar code, QR code or NFC), but it can also be used for online checkout (it remembers card details from several providers).

The greatest success however is currently being enjoyed by eBay's Paypal, which has seen success at a large number of traditional retailers such as The Home Depot (HD) and Office Depot (OD). One drawback that remains is that although the system is itself secure, there is always a security risk for a buyer not used to dealing with Paypal, since it requires personal information.

Mobile banking is set to grow very strongly over the next few years, according to Juniper Research. The research firm estimates that a billion mobile devices (or 15% of the installed base) will be used for banking transactions by 2017, up from an expected 590 million at the end of this year. Most banks already offer at least one mobile banking offering, with some larger banks offering more tha! n one opt! ion. Messaging remains the most popular across the world, but apps are likely to remain the preferred channel in most developed markets.

Mobile banking has not picked up sufficiently in either the U.S. or Canada, due to security-related concerns. However, an analysis by Deloitte shows that mobile banking could become the most-preferred banking method by 2020. The study estimates that 20-25 million "Generation Y" (Gen Y) consumers will become new banking customers by 2015.

A banking.com study shows that 48% of Gen Y consumers are already using online banking services. Moreover, their preference for online banking is so high that around 30% said they would consider switching financial institutions if they did not provide the service. Both online and mobile banking by Gen Y largely consists of checking account balances and transferring funds, although they also like to pay bills on the platform.

It is believed that high smartphone penetration, higher income within this group and greater digital sophistication will drive increased demand for mobile banking services. Since mobile banking is expected to be the most cost efficient for banks, investment in technology to improve and expand mobile banking services is likely to increase.

Security

With online transactions expected to boom over the next few years, the topmost concern remains security. While banks will spend significantly on secure payment systems, hackers are expected to have a field day, largely targeting the flood of customers going online. Last year saw a huge increase in security breaches, something that may be expected to continue.

Recent research from McAfee revealed certain important facts: first, that mobile malware was primarily spreading through apps; second, 75% of infected apps came from Google Play; third, the chances of downloading malware or suspicious URLs was 1 in 6; fourth, 40% of malware families disrupt the system in more than one way, which is an indication of the increasing sophist! ication o! f hackers; and fifth, 23% of mobile spyware can result in data loss.

Even more alarming is that even "secure" payment platforms like digital wallets using NFC technology can now be infected by worms within close range of devices ("bump and infect"). An infected device can give out personal information during the payment process that can be used to steal from the wallet.

Mobile security offerings currently come from AirWatch, Apple (AAPL), Avast, Check Point, Cisco (CSCO), IBM (IBM), Juniper (JNPR), Kaspersky, McAfee, Microsoft (MSFT), MobileIron, RIM (Blackberry) (BBRY), Symantec (SYMC) and Trend Micro, among others.

Alternative payment systems will continue to gain popularity. While some of these payment systems, such as eBay's (EBAY) PayPal have been around for a while, other systems, such as Google's digital wallet, V.me and the FIS Mobile Wallet are still in the making. Alternative payment systems never really gained momentum in the past because of the low volume of transactions. However, as online transactions continue to increase, many more such systems could suddenly become more available.

We expect mobile security to become a major focus area for technology companies, since this is the stumbling block to payments through the mobile platform (currently just 2% of U.S. online spending).

Digital Advertising

The U.S. digital advertising market has seen some very strong growth in the past few years, despite the recession that impacted the entire economy. eMarketer estimates that the market will grow 14.0% in 2013, compared to the 15.0% growth in 2012.

Growth rates are expected to continue declining: 12.4% in 2014, 10.2% in 2015, 9.0% in 2016 and 6.9% in 2017. Retail, financial services, consumer packaged goods (CPG) and travel in that order, are expected to drive this growth.

The current strength in online advertising is coming primarily from the growing popularity of the display format. Of all the forms of online advertising,! display ! (including video, banner ads, rich media and sponsorships) is expected to see the strongest growth over the next few years. Also, of all the forms of display advertising, video and banner ads are expected to grow the strongest from 2011 to 2016.

Search will remain supreme until 2016, gradually giving way to video and banner ads, both of which will grow rapidly. The lower pricing of video and banner ads has made them popular with brand advertisers, so ad inventories are solid. Another factor favoring display ads is the proliferation of smartphones, where the smaller screens make display ads more effective than text ads.

The underlying drivers of growth of the display format are the continued increase in the number of users, greater propensity of users to consume online, a growing inventory of advertisements that serve to lower advertisement prices and the need to create brand awareness online.

Search advertising is expected to remain popular, because results are measurable, and therefore, more predictable than other media. This also makes the market more resilient in recessionary conditions, since advertisers are more confident about the results of their spending.

Since ecommerce entails the buying and selling of goods or services over electronic systems, it includes companies that are totally dependent on these sales, those that are gradually moving to it, as well as those that want to use it partially. Therefore, the biggest sellers or the ones growing the strongest are not necessarily those that are solely dependent on the Internet. The following diagrams seek to explain the position of companies primarily dependent on the Internet for the distribution of their goods and services in the context of the Zacks Industry Rank.

Two (Retail/Wholesale and Computer & Technology) of the 16 broad Zacks sectors are related to the ecommerce industry as depicted below.



! We rank t! he 264 industries across the 16 Zacks sectors based on the earnings outlook and fundamental strength of the constituent companies in each industry. To learn more visit: About Zacks Industry Rank.

The outlook for industries positioned at #88 or lower is 'Positive,' between #89 and #176 is 'Neutral' and #177 and higher is 'Negative.'

Therefore, Internet Commerce being in the 114th position is in Neutral territory, with Internet Services (185th position) being negative and Internet Services – Delivery (58th position) being positive.

So it is not surprising that the average rank of stocks in the Internet Commerce industry is 3.00, for Internet Services it is 3.15, while for Internet Services – Delivery, it is 2.76. [Note: Zacks Rank #1 denotes Strong Buy, #2 is Buy, #3 means Hold, #4 Sell and #5 Strong Sell].

Earnings Trends

The broader Retail/Wholesale sector, of which Internet Commerce is a part, appears to be turning the corner. While the revenue beat ratio is on the low side (34.1%), the earnings beat ratio is pretty robust at 61.4%.

Total earnings for the sector were up 5.7%, but not nearly as good as the 7.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2012. Total revenues were up 1.5% from last year compared to a 4.9% increase in the fourth quarter.

The other companies we are discussing in the e-Commerce outlook (Part 2) fall under the broader Technology sector. Here too, we see a fairly strong earnings beat ratio of 63.1%, partially supported by a revenue beat ratio of 45.6%.

However, total earnings in the sector were down 4.4% compared to a 1.7% increase in the fourth quarter. Total revenues did slightly better, increasing 2.9% from last year, down from 5.3% in the fourth quarter.

Initial earnings estimates for 2013 and 2014 indicate double-digit growth in both years for Retail/Wholesale. Technology on the other hand is expected to be flat this year and up double-digits in the next.

OPPORTUNITIES

While many of the compan! ies discu! ssed are expected to do well this year, there are a few stand-out opportunities.

TripAdvisor (TRIP) is doing extremely well right now and the company's decision to invest in offline advertising (TV) makes sense. Traffic continues to surge, as the company continues to add content, both in the U.S. and important international markets.

Another good investment is Yahoo (YHOO), which is altering course under the leadership of Marissa Meyer. The company has been acquiring aggressively to position itself in the mobile segment and last reports indicated growing engagement.

Facebook (FB) is another opportunity worth looking into. The company is cozying up with Samsung, which has taken the mobile market by storm. It is also getting more innovative by the day, which is the only way to success here.

WEAKNESSES

We do not see a lot of weakness, although many of the companies may not be great opportunities either.

Revenue growth prospects for online travel companies Priceline, Expedia and Orbitz Worldwide are good. International expansion is a key factor driving growth for these companies and collaborative agreements with local players will be the key. Lower-value inventories in international markets are on the rise, so margins could be impacted.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Legal Woes Drag JPMorgan Profits Down 7%; Wells Net Jumps 10%

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) fourth-quarter profit fell 7.3% from the prior year due to some $1 billion in legal expenses and other issues, the company said early Tuesday. Still, its results beat analysts’ estimates for the fourth quarter of 2013.

For the full year, JPMorgan’s net income weakened 16% to $17.9 billion. As a result, it is no longer the most profitable U.S. bank: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) had $21.9 billion in annual earnings, a 16% improvement from 2012.

In the fourth quarter, Wells Fargo saw its net income improve 10% from last year, narrowly topping analysts’ estimates.

Both banks reported declining revenue, reflecting the tough mortgage market and other conditions that are affecting growth in the banking sector, analysts say, which should be reflected in other financial industry results to be reported over the next few weeks. 

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the bank is glad "to have put some significant issues behind us this quarter," noting in a statement that "it was in the best interests of our company and shareholders for us to accept responsibility, resolve these issues and move forward."

Revenue for the New York-based bank fell about 1% year over year to $24.1 billion. San Francisco-based Wells Fargo’s sales dropped roughly 5% to $20.7 billion during the quarter from $21.9 billion a year ago.

Dimon in the Rough

Earlier this year, the CEO shared the news that JPMorgan agreed to pay some $20 billion for legal settlements in 2013. Much of the fourth-quarter expense was tied to its failure to report suspicions of fraud by Ponzi-schemer client Bernard Madoff.

In some business areas, sales have been weakening. Investment banking fee revenue dropped 3% to $1.67 billion in the quarter, as debt-underwriting sales fell 19% from last year and advisory fees 7%. Plus, stock and bond trading revenue were flat in Q4’13.

JPMorgan had a $274 million pretax loss from its mortgage loans, compared with a year-earlier profit of $789 million. Still, equity underwriting revenue improved 65% to $436 million, and net income from consumer and community banking climbed close to 20% to $2.37 billion.

Wells Fargo

"The fourth quarter of 2013 was very strong for Wells Fargo, with record earnings, solid growth in loans, deposits and capital, and strong credit quality,'' CFO Tim Sloan said in a statement. "We also grew both net interest income and noninterest income during the quarter, despite a challenging rate environment and the expected decline in mortgage originations.''

Still, the California-based bank, which is the largest U.S. home lender, says its fourth-quarter mortgage-banking income drop by almost half from a year ago to $1.57 billion.

Its Wealth, Brokerage and Retirement unit, though, improved its results in the fourth quarter, with income growing about 40% year over year and 9% from Q3 to $491 million. Sales for the unit expanded 11% from a year ago and 4% from Q3 to $3.4 billion.

The bank notes that it had “strong growth in asset-based fees, as well as higher net interest income and higher gains on deferred compensation plan investments (offset in compensation expense).”

The retail brokerage held $1.4 trillion in client assets, up 12% year over year. Managed account assets increased $71 billion, or 23% from a year ago “driven by strong market performance and net flows.”

Wealth management assets hit $218 billion in Q4'13, a jump of 7% from a year ago.

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Check out JPMorgan to Pay More Than $2 Billion for Madoff Oversight Failure on ThinkAdvisor.
 

Monday, January 13, 2014

GE Delivers Some Much-Needed Normalcy

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General Electric (NYSE:GE) hasn't been looking all that "GE-like" in recent quarters, and investors have reacted badly to soft margins and disappointments in the Industrial business, as well as uncertainty with regard to the future of GE Capital. I wouldn't go so far as to say that one clean quarter proves that things are back to normal, but a generally surprise-free second quarter at least allows investors a chance to appreciate GE for the virtues it does have. GE shares aren't a major bargain today, and the expectations for Industrial are still pretty high, but I think owning GE is still likely a money-making proposition from these levels.

A Calming Quarter From GE
Volatile margins and big quarter-to-quarter swings in the Industrial line items have made holding GE shares through earnings reports a little more interesting than the typical GE investor probably likes. With that, I think there will be more than a few sighs of relief for this second quarter report.

Overall corporate revenue fell about 4% for the quarter, a bit below estimates (about 1%) but not enough to really cause concern. Industrial revenue was down about 1% and basically in line with expectations, while revenue from GE Capital was down more than 4% with widespread weakness across the segments (with leasing down almost 6%, aviation down almost 3%, and consumer down more than 2%).

Margins were pretty good, though, and that may be the big positive take-away for the quarter. Overall corporate operating earnings were down 12%, with segment earnings growth of 2% for industrial and 9% contraction for GE Capital. Industrial margins were better than expected, up about a half point and higher than the flat-to-down expectations, and aviation and transportation margins were significantly improved.

GE Isn't Alone
It's probably lucky for GE shareholders that the company reported good (or at least better than expected) results from the industrial business, as many of the company's peers are coming in with solid reports. Dover (NYSE:DOV) had very good organic growth this quarter, and the two companies saw broadly similar success in their energy businesses. That should bode well for other companies like Pentair (NYSE:PNR) with exposure to this end market.

Aviation was also strong (revenue up 9%, margins up about a point) and better than the results from Honeywell (NYSE:HON), though that's not an entirely fair peer-to-peer comparison. Nevertheless, Honeywell also had a pretty good all-around quarter and I would expect United Technology (NYSE:UTX) to be in relatively solid shape with its quarter.

SEE: How To Use Options To Make Earnings Predictions

GE is also unlikely to be unusual with its weak (down 0.2%) results in healthcare. There haven't been too many hospital/healthcare capex vendors to report yet, but Stryker (NYSE:SYK) suggested that the market for big-ticket items is still tough, and that seems to gel with GE's experience.

What's Next For GE Capital?
I believe investors are still waiting to hear more clarity from management on the future plans for GE Capital. In particular, attention is centering on the plans for the company's private label credit card business – a surprisingly large business relative to the likes of Capital One (NYSE:COF) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). With a stated preference to focus more on middle-market activities and leasing, a sale of this business could bring in a considerable sum, but it will be interesting to see who comes up with the cash to buy it.

The Bottom Line
I continue to value GE on a two-part basis, treating the industrial and capital operations as separate entities. I value Industrial on the basis of expectations for 5% revenue and 10% free cash flow growth, which are perhaps bullish estimates but not outrageously so. On that basis, GE Industrial appears to be worth about $19 per share. I value GE Capital on the basis of a 10% long-term return on equity and a slightly elevated discount rate, which results in a value of $7.25.

Combined, I believe fair value on GE shares is just under $26.50. That doesn't make GE a striking bargain today, but there actually aren't many bargain-priced industrial stocks out there anymore and I believe the combination of GE's attractive end-markets exposure, capital flexibility, and potential outperformance from GE Capital make it no worse than a worthwhile hold at today's price.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

How Super-Successful Millennials Think Differently About Money

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_Ben and Marcos Welsh, Getty Images When Josh McFarland graduated from Stanford he owed $40,000 in student loans and couldn't fathom a way he'd ever pay it off and have a future for himself -- not unusual for the typical young adult these days. Then he went to work for Google. As a product manager, he got stock options and cashed them in over the five years he worked there. He married a fellow Google employee, so she had stock too. Then she moved on to Yelp , and he quit to launch TellApart, which provides technology solutions for e-commerce sites. Now 33, McFarland has a 3-year-old and a newborn and no longer has to think about his student loan: His company has $17.75 million in venture capital investment. While he doesn't consider himself retire-now rich, his piece of the company affords him what he calls "breathing room" and what other people might call wealth. McFarland is on the starting end of Generation Y, the cohort born in the United States after 1980 that is typically portrayed as saddled with massive student debt, underemployed and underpaid. More than a third of the 80 million group of so-called millennials live with their parents, according to the Pew Research Group. But McFarland is part of the sizeable minority that is doing quite well: 12 million Gen Y-ers make more than $100,000, according to the Ipsos MediaCT's Mendelsohn Affluent Survey. Many of them, in technology fields, live frugal work-based lifestyles and are not saddled with the six-digit student debt held by doctors and lawyers. Raised on the Internet and disheartened by having watched the older generations suffer through the tech bubble of 2000 and the recession of 2008, these young adults are viewing their quickly accumulating wealth differently. For one thing, they do not seem as interested in the trappings of wealth, nor are they concerned about stuffing traditional retirement accounts. They see money as a path to career freedom, where they can pick up and start again at will as soon as a more interesting offer comes along. Increasingly they turn to Web-based wealth management firms or choose do-it-yourself brokerage accounts. Consider the typical clients at Wealthfront, an online investing broker that has amassed $300 million in assets under management by catering to a demographic that is comfortable doing most of their business online. These are people in their early 30s with $100,000 to invest, mostly above and beyond any tax-advantaged retirement plans like 401(k)s and IRAs. Chief Operating Officer Adam Nash estimates that Gen Y techies control about $100 billion in assets. "The whole idea from the 80s -- that you'd make some money and use that money to make more money -- this current generation isn't looking at money that way," says Nash. "The typical software engineer isn't dreaming of the day he can quit the rat race. They use their money instead to gain a little bit of control over what they work on and what they do." Investing in Themselves The money, when it comes, is for breeding new success, not tucking away until old age. Trip Adler's path is typical: He graduated from Harvard in 2006 with an idea for Scribd, a community-driven e-book publishing platform, and pursued it relentlessly -- living with his partners in a tiny apartment in San Francisco on $12,000 in seed funding from the venture capital fund Y Combinator. Scribd took off and now has millions of dollars in funding and deals with major publishers. Adler, 29, who has profited nicely from all of this, says his biggest splurge is probably angel investing, mostly in companies his friends are starting. "Probably one in five will be a good payoff, but that will pay off the rest. The amount of money being lost is small," he says. For TellApart's McFarland, long-term planning also focuses on entrepreneurship. He considers himself a terrible stock investor but a good businessman, and intends to make the bulk of his money by developing great companies. (For that reason he's reluctant to start so much as a college-savings plan for his kids, though his wife disagrees.) What he does squirrel away he wants in low-cost index funds, managed as minimally as possible. He is a Wealthfront client. For the financial firms handling the core of Gen Y's wealth, this no-fuss attitude can present a challenge. Merrill Lynch private banking wealth adviser Rich Hogan says his clients have their own interests to pursue - especially focusing on green technologies and doing social good with their investing - and do not necessarily focus first on performance. Not That Into 'Stuff' These children of the boom 90s also aren't so into conspicuous consumption. "Where I grew up, if you had money, you spent it on toys -- all-terrain vehicles, McMansion, and all this stuff," says McFarland. He doesn't think his peers have the same appetite, and says his biggest splurge currently is a night nanny to help with the new baby. Adler still drives his mom's old car and has only recently stepped up to rent his own apartment. "I don't really have ambitions to make a lot of money just to spend it," he says. Merrill Lynch's Hogan says this echoes what he hears from his ultra-high-net-worth Gen Y clients. They don't even want to buy houses, because they don't have the time or desire to take care of them. Where the wealthy young are spending their cash is on experiences -- food, wine, even space travel. Hogan says more than a few of his clients have reserved seats for trips on Virgin Galactic's SpaceShip 2 at a couple of hundred thousand dollars a pop. "Those are the kind of cool things that they think about. It's discretionary income to somebody with millions," he says. Wade Eyerly, 33, has built a millennial-run startup around providing such luxury experiences with SurfAir, which rents out seats on a fleet of private jets. "The thing that sets the millennials apart is travel patterns. They think nothing of going to from Los Angeles to San Francisco for a few hours and then coming back," he says. Also, there's a bit of a focus on cars, but in a smart way. Merrill Lynch's Hogan says, "I had a client come in and say that he bought a Tesla -- but he had also bought shares in the company. And he told us that he made enough profit on the shares to cover the cost of the car."

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Advanced Micro Devices Beats on Both Top and Bottom Lines

Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD  ) reported earnings on July 18. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended June 29 (Q2), Advanced Micro Devices beat expectations on revenues and exceeded expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue shrank significantly. Non-GAAP earnings per share contracted to a loss. GAAP earnings per share dropped to a loss.

Margins dropped across the board.

Revenue details
Advanced Micro Devices logged revenue of $1.16 billion. The 26 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ looked for revenue of $1.11 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 18% lower than the prior-year quarter's $1.41 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at -$0.09. The 27 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ predicted -$0.12 per share. Non-GAAP EPS were -$0.09 for Q2 versus $0.06 per share for the prior-year quarter. GAAP EPS were -$0.10 for Q2 compared to $0.05 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 39.5%, 600 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -2.5%, 830 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -6.4%, 900 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $1.41 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.01.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $5.16 billion. The average EPS estimate is -$0.15.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 3,145 members out of 3,818 rating the stock outperform, and 673 members rating it underperform. Among 599 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 476 give Advanced Micro Devices a green thumbs-up, and 123 give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Advanced Micro Devices is hold, with an average price target of $3.43.

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Friday, January 10, 2014

Court to hear TV network challenge to streaming…

WASHINGTON -- The Supreme Court agreed Friday to consider an effort by network television broadcasters to stop TV-streaming startup Aereo from peddling live shows over the Internet.

The challenge, being waged by ABC, NBC,CBS, FOX, Disney and others, thrusts Barry Diller-backed Aereo into a David-v.-Goliath showdown likely to come before the court in April.

Last spring, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit in New York ruled 2-1 that the live streaming did not violate broadcasters' copyrights.

The broadcasters' appeal was backed by others, including the National Football League and Major League Baseball.

"We look forward to presenting our case to the Supreme Court," said Aereo CEO and founder Chet Kanojia, in a statement released Friday. "We believe that consumers have a right to use an antenna to access over-the-air television and to make personal recordings of those broadcasts."

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Consumers who want better access to network TV programming without buying cable have cheered on start-ups such as Aereo. But broadcasters say that costs them advertising revenue as well as retransmission fees that cable companies pay to carry their channels.

Backed by Diller, the longtime media mogul, Aereo retransmits broadcast TV content using a farm of mini-antennas in Brooklyn. Each antenna receives the TV signal and allows a subscriber to view or record the content through Aereo's streaming technology. Subscribers need an Internet connection and pay Aereo fees ranging from $1 a day to $80 a year.

Aereo says it does not infringe on broadcasters' copyrights because its mini-antennas are individually leased by the subscribers. That, says Aereo, makes the subsequently streamed content a "private performance" for each paying subscriber that is not subject to licensing agreements.

Broadcasters say that all services that re! transmit broadcast programming to the public are engaged in "public performances" that require licenses from copyright owners.

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Thursday, January 9, 2014

What I Learned From The Greatest Stock Speculator In History

In this modern age of instant market access, high-frequency trading and real-time news, there really is nothing new under the sun.

The stock market still goes up and goes down, investors still make and lose money, and the basic market dynamics between a buyer and a seller remain the same. Many market lessons taught a century ago still ring true today.

One of the most influential and successful stock market speculators of all time is the legendary Jesse Livermore. Many lessons can be learned from both his successes and failures, which were epic in scale. He made and lost several fortunes over his career, and his life ended tragically.

 

Livermore was keenly aware of his own shortcomings. Although this knowledge wasn't enough to save him, the wisdom he shared with the world is as much worth heeding today as it has ever been. Let's take a closer look at the man once called the "Speculator King" and one of his powerful investing strategies.

Fortunes Won, Fortunes Lost
Jesse Livermore's dad wanted him to be a farmer, but this born investor knew from a very early age that his calling was the stock market. After he left home at 14, his mathematical ability and love for the market landed him a job as a quotation changer at a stockbroker's office in Boston. He started dabbling in the market by risking his salary in the off-exchange stock-trading parlors known as bucket shops. Think of modern-day off-track betting facilities -- but stock prices, rather than horses, are used as betting tools. His math-oriented brain quickly began to discern repeating patterns in the stock prices.

     
   
  Jesse Livermore is one of the most influential and successful stock market speculators of all time.  

By the time Livermore was 21, this skill had earned him enough money to move to New York City, where this young financial wizard turned his full attention to the legitimate markets. Quickly building a reputation as a master stock trader, he earned around $3 million shorting stocks during the 1907 crash. 

Despite his success, he was forced to declare bankruptcy after losing 90% of the $3 million he made during the 1907 crash. This was mostly due to a single trade in cotton in which he broke his personal investing rules by continuing to buy the commodity as it was dropping in price.

Starting again with a greatly diminished portfolio, he was able to ride the World War I-driven bull market to another large trading stake. His legendary status was cemented when he successfully shorted stocks during the great crash of 1929, earning over $100 million.

Although he had great success, he also had his demons. Being married three times -- the third to a woman whose previous four husbands had committed suicide -- clearly shows a personal life in serious disarray.

By 1934, this once-mighty fixture of the financial markets was broke again, and his membership to the Chicago Board of Trade was automatically revoked due to lack of capital.   

Finally, in 1940, a lifelong battle with depression ended in his suicide in a coatroom at a New York hotel. Despite claiming to be completely broke, this investment wizard is said to have left $5 million in cash and trusts at his death. Much more important than his money, however, is the timeless wisdom Livermore left for all investors.

The Most Important Rule
Today, 73 years after his death, investors still follow the investing wisdom he left for the ages in his book "How to Trade in Stocks," as well as in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator," a fictionalized account of his life. I strongly recommend these books to anyone interested in the building blocks of investing.

The primary lesson I learned from Livermore's writings is simple yet profound. He taught to look for obvious trends in price, set a price level on the chart (which he called pivot points), then buy or sell the stock depending on how price acted once it hits the pivot point.

Pivot points are the same thing as the support and resistance levels that I talk about in my articles. In fact, Livermore's idea on how to trade pivot points has had a profound influence on the way I approach the market. It is the basic idea behind my Channel System for entering trades and longer-term investments. This tactic, although perhaps older than Livermore himself, still continues to be a steady source of profits for many traders. 

Here's how it works: Imagine a stock's pivot point to be at $25. Once price hits $25 on the way up, you wait for price to break through the line for a certain number of ticks. You could wait for price to hit $25.50 then enter your position long. On the other hand, if price hits the $25 pivot or resistance point and starts falling, you would enter short at $24.50 in the anticipation that the down move will continue.

Livermore's investing tactic is the building block of multiple different strategies. Here is an example using Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD). 

Livermore likely would have seen a pivot point in the double bottom formed in March and April. He would have entered on the bounce off this level, potentially doubling his money. The current pivot point/support level is at $2.80. Livermore would probably wait for the bounce to be confirmed at $3 prior to entering the trade.

Risks to Consider: Just because you are using the same pivot points that you believe Jesse Livermore would have used is in no way a guarantee of profits. Remember, prices can do anything, regardless of pivot points. Money management rules are the key to making the system work. Livermore was a huge proponent of letting winners run and cutting losses. If prices move against your position after you enter a trade based on a pivot point, close the position after the support or resistance at the original pivot point fails. You can always re-enter the trade later.

Action to Take --> Make it a point to read Livermore's books and try to incorporate his ideas into your investment philosophy. I elaborated on just one of his trading tactics -- his books delve into many more. There are many life lessons, positive and negative alike, to learn from his experience. Livermore said that every time he failed, it was because he broke his own rules. Take this wisdom to heart.

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Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Pentagon Accelerates Funding of General Dynamics Submarines

On Friday, the U.S. Department of Defense announced it has awarded General Dynamics' (NYSE: GD  ) Electric Boat Corp. subsidiary a $208.6 million "undefinitized" contract modification to a previously awarded contract. The funds are to be used to purchase long-lead-time materials needed for construction of three Virginia-class nuclear fast attack submarines:

SSN 793, the second attack sub to be procured in 2014, and a sub that was previously scheduled for procurement no sooner than 2015. SSN 794 and SSN 795, now both scheduled for procurement in 2015.

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Note that the procurement years stated refer to when Congress will officially procure money to pay for the subs, and not the years they will enter service.

Purchasing of the materials in question is expected to be complete by December 2013, but dates for the actual construction of the submarines have not yet been established.

Shares of General Dynamics closed at $78.33, down 0.4% in Friday trading, ahead of this contract's announcement.

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Why Vishay Precision Group's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Vishay Precision Group (NYSE: VPG  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Vishay Precision Group generated $9.0 million cash while it booked net income of $11.4 million. That means it turned 4.1% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Vishay Precision Group look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

Vishay Precision Group's issue isn't questionable cash flow boosts, but items in that suspect group that reduced cash flow. Within the questionable cash flow figure -- here a negative-- plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) constituted the biggest reversal. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 42.0% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

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