Saturday, November 30, 2013

Stocks Going Ex-Dividend on Monday, November 18 (TGT, AFL, More)

Ex-dividend dates are very important to dividend investors, since you must purchase a stock prior to its ex-dividend date in order to receive its upcoming dividend payout. For more information, check out Everything Investors Need to Know About Ex-Dividend Dates

Below are seven stocks going ex-dividend on Monday, November 18:

Target
Target Corporation (TGT) offers a dividend yield of 2.58% based on Thursday's closing price of $66.67 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 43 cents. The stock is up 12% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates TGT as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

AFLAC
AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) offers a dividend yield of 2.19% based on Thursday's closing price of $67.47 and the company's quarterly dividend payout of 37 cents. The stock is up 27% year-to-date. Dividend.com currently rates AFL as “Neutral” with a DARS™ rating of 3.4 stars out of 5 stars.

Energizer
Ener

Friday, November 29, 2013

For REITs -- Rising Rates Or Rising Rents?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Which is more important? We've been hearing about how rising rates will have a negative impact on dividend-paying assets and sectors like Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs). The argument is that as rates rise to more normalized levels, companies in these categories will be forced to pay more for their revolving debts. And these are companies that typically carry high levels of debt. That sounds bad!

Additionally, if interest rates move higher, then yields on investments like Treasuries, agency bonds, and high grade corporate debt will follow -- the cash flow REITs and MLPs pass through to shareholders surely won't look as attractive in comparison. That sounds really bad!

Right?

Not necessarily. The argument above fails to peel back more than one layer of the onion that is the free market. Owners, landlords, and CEOs have the ability to raise prices to keep up with not just inflation, but with the market. A stock, home, lease or product is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. But this works both ways -- if a client or tenant is willing (forced) to pay a higher price, then that same higher price is set for the clients and tenants behind him. As both residential and commercial real estate prices have rebounded, so too have the rents that can be commanded by owners. And it's true that as the rates real estate owners pay on their variable debt moves higher, those additional costs will be passed on -- but that will primarily be to the tenants, not the shareholders. We just renewed our office lease and rent is now more than 20% higher than it was the past two years. Let's look at the hypothetical scenario in which a large shopping mall in Suburbia, U.S.A., is valued at $200 million and is owned by All-REIT, LLC. All-REIT owes $150 million on the property and the average cost of their funds is 4%, meaning the annual interest alone to service debt is $6 million. Let's further assume All-REIT has only been able to fix the rate on half of that $150 million, leaving $75 million exposed to interest rate risk. Should rates rise meaningfully from here, and All-REIT's cost of funds goes to 8% on that $75 million, their annual interest expense will have skyrocketed to $9 million - a 50% increase.

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Aside from that example sounding ominous, is it really? Are we really to believe All-REIT's balance sheet is going to absorb all of this added expense? Will the upkeep, safety, and appearance of this facility suffer as a result? Will the top-tier tenants begin to leave, allowing the remaining tenants to negotiate more favorable terms? Will All-REIT have to cut their distributions to shareholders in order to stay afloat? Maybe All-REIT should just shut down the entire operation before things can get any worse....

In reality, the slow but steady rise in real estate prices since 2010 has allowed owners and landlords to refinance debt and reduce their overall costs to service debt. In turn, this frees up cash flow and allows for not just improvements but also expansion -- broadening and diversifying their base of properties, furthering the stability of future distributions.

It's not "good vs. bad," but "better vs. worse"

Concerned about the fact that -- mainly due to still-high unemployment -- historically high commercial vacancies will hurt the owners of retail, office, and industrial space? Consider the fact that the trend is favorable. Unemployment is lower today than it was a year, two years or three years ago. According to the National Association of Realtors, commercial vacancies are all projected to drop (albeit slightly) over the next year. But maybe more importantly, rents are projected to grow across all segments of commercial real estate over the next two years: It may also be interesting to note that Macy's (M) stock, a fairly reliable barometer for our retail sector, hit an all-time high on Wednesday, just a day before the 87th annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Consider, too, from a valuation standpoint REITs look inexpensive. The Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ) currently trades about 15% below its recent price of 78 (reached in May). If the trends in vacancy and rent above continue, I believe there could be a great deal of room to run for this asset class. And you'll earn a 3.9% annual dividend in the meantime....

Sometimes arguments are ignored because they are "just too obvious." In this case I believe it's the exact opposite -- the simple argument that rising rates will be bad for REITs is the one being adopted and acted upon. And the selling pressure Vanguard REIT Index ETF has faced as a result may be creating an attractive entry point for the rest of us.

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @#ArgyleCapital At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

Adam B. Scott is a founder of Argyle Capital Partners, a fee-only Registered Investment Advisor based in Los Angeles. A veteran of Morgan Stanley and UBS Wealth Management in Beverly Hills, Calif., Adam uses his extensive market knowledge and macro-level analysis to implement customized solutions for high net worth private clients. Adam is an avid tennis player and skier, and volunteers his free time to the Fulfillment Fund, the Tufts Alumni Association and coaching local youth sports.

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Data Reports Send Dow Up For 5th Straight Session

U.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday, with the Dow rising for the fifth straight trading session to close at a new record high after a string of upbeat economic reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to close at 16,097.2. The S&P 500 index tacked on 0.3% to close at 1,807.2.

And the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% to end at 4,044.75.

Technology stocks performed well on Wednesday. Former Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) rallied after a better-than-expected earnings report. International Business Machines (IBM) led gainers in the Dow industrials.

Still, it was a string of economic reports that sent the indicies higher, including better-than-expecetd data on jobless claims, manufacturing in the Midwest and consumer confidence.

U.S. stock markets will remain closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and close early — 1 p.m. EST – on Friday.

Earlier today, October orders for durable goods fell by 2%.

Consumer confidence was stronger than expected in November. The final reading of the Thomson-Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for the month was revised up to 75.1, above the projected 73.5. The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2%, while it was expected to remain unchanged.

The ISM's Chicago-area purchasing managers’ index slipped to 63.0 in November, while a decline to 60.0 was expected. Earlier, the Department of Labor reported there were 316,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the latest week, fewer than the 330,000 expected.

Looking ahead, investors are focused on the December meeting of the Federal Reserve. The central bank has said it could start to pare back those policies in coming months, but that the decision will depend on economic data.

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The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.739% from 2.696% late Tuesday.

Crude-oil futures fell after a government survey showed domestic supplies rose for a 10th straight week, dragging down major oil companies including Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and Noble Energy (NBL).

Meanwhile, gold futures fell, while the dollar edged lower against the euro and rose against the yen.

In other corporate news, Time Warner Cable (TWC) edged higher after The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Cox Communications is considering jumping into the bidding for the second-largest cable operator.

Charter Communications (CHTR) and Comcast (CMCSA) are each also contemplating bids. The WSJ reported late today that Charter is arranging $25 billionin debt to fund its bid.

Shares of Charter and Comcast fell 0.9% and 0.3% respectively.

A federal judge cleared the way for AMR (AAMRQ) to exit bankruptcy, clearing the way for a merger between American Airlines (owned by AMR) and U.S. Airways Group (LCC). AMR and U.S. Airlines rose 2.7% and 0.6% respectively.

CVS Caremark (CVS) rose 1% to $66.77 after it said it would buy medical provider Coram LLC to continue its push into the specialty-drug market.

Tesla Motors (TSLA) rose 5.3% to $126.94 after analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank posted opposing notes.

Crocs (CROX) rose 2.2% to $15.84 after Bloomberg reported the firm may be seeing an investment from private equity firms.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Hewlett-Packard Cuts Costs Enough to Satisfy Investors

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) reported fourth quarter and full-year 2013 results after markets closed Tuesday evening. For the quarter the hardware maker reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.01 and $29.1 billion in revenues. In the same period a year ago, H-P reported EPS of $1.16 on revenue of $30 billion. Third-quarter results compare to the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates for EPS of $1.00 and $27.91 billion in revenue.

For the full year H-P posted EPS of $3.56 on revenues of $112.3 billion, down from EPS of $4.05 and revenues of $120.4 billion in 2012. The consensus estimates called for 2013 EPS of $3.55 on revenues of $111.15 billion.

Third-quarter adjusted earnings do not include charges of $371 million for restructuring and $317 million on amortization of intangible assets. A tax adjustment of $146 million helped offset the charges. On a GAAP basis, EPS totaled $0.73 in the third quarter.

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For the first quarter of its 2014 fiscal year, H-P forecast adjusted EPS in a range of $0.82 to $0.86. For the full year the company estimates adjusted EPS at $3.55 to $3.75. The consensus estimates for the first quarter are $0.85 on revenues of $26.82 billion and for the full year EPS is forecast at $3.66 on revenues of $107.61 billion.

CEO Meg Whitman said:

Through improved execution, strong cost management, and with the support of our customers and partners, HP ended fiscal 2013 on a high note. Our Q4 results demonstrate that HP’s turnaround remains on track heading into fiscal 2014.

Looking briefly at operating margins, for the third quarter consolidated gross margin rose 0.6% sequentially and was down 1.4% year-over-year. Margins rose year over year in the software and financial services groups, and were down 2.3% in the enterprise services group and 2% in the enterprise group.

Because analysts have a lower full-year revenue forecast for 2014 than H-P posted in 2013, margins are going to have to improve if the profit estimate is going to prove out. Operating margin could be the metric that makes or break H-P next year.

Shares of H-P are up nearly 7% in after-hours trading Tuesday, at $26.76 in a 52-week range of $12.22 to $27.78. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $25.00 before today's results were announced.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

What Microsoft’s new CEO should do

(Editor's note: Dan Ferris, an analyst at Stansberry & Associates, asserts that Microsoft's outgoing CEO Steve Ballmer has been stingy sharing free cash flow with Microsoft shareholders. Here's what Ferris would like to see Microsoft's next CEO do.)

Microsoft expects to have a new CEO by the end of the year. Let's not waste time guessing who it might or ought to be. Let's make it clear what the new CEO should do on his/her first day at work.

Microsoft isn't a consumer PC company anymore. It gets more than 60% of its sales and 70% of its profits from selling software to small, medium, and large businesses. Microsoft isn't Apple. Microsoft is a business software company – and a great one.

Context: Why some shareholders also want Bill Gates out.

It has 16 businesses that do $1 billion or more a year in sales. Some grow at double-digit rates. These and other Microsoft ventures gush tens of billions in cash flow every year. You've probably never even heard of some of these billion-dollar businesses: SQL Server, System Center, Sharepoint, Lync... These are business-software tools. Information technology professionals can't do their jobs without them.

Microsoft has its problems, but its biggest one is rarely mentioned: It doesn't know what to do with all the money it makes. That, I believe, is the real reason its stock price never seems to go anywhere.

Microsoft has wasted nearly $22 billion on three terrible acquisitions since 2007. It paid $6 billion for online marketing services firm aQuantive – and wrote the entire investment off as a total loss last year. It paid $8.5 billion for Internet phone company Skype, which adds little to Microsoft's massive bottom line. And now it's paying over $7 billion for Nokia – a dying brand whose sales plummeted another 32% in the first half of this year.

Microsoft should listen to co-founder and chairman Bill Gates' good friend Warren Buffett, who reminds us, "Most turnarounds don't." Nokia hasn't made money in three yea! rs. Microsoft won't turn it around. It's just another expensive dud.

For all its genius at software, Microsoft is lousy at reinvesting its huge profits. The solution is simple. Pay out more in dividends and share repurchases. Microsoft holds $70 billion offshore, as if paying U.S. corporate taxes is worse than Microsoft's huge, costly acquisitions. It should bring the cash home and pay it out to shareholders.

Microsoft should also dedicate 50% or more of its annual excess cash flow to dividends and share buybacks. That'll help discipline Microsoft against more waste, cause its share price to soar, and reward shareholders of the world's greatest software firm, accordingly.

About the author: Dan Ferris is a value analyst for Stansberry & Associates Investment Research and is the editor of two monthly investment research publications, The 12% Letter, an income-focused research advisory which looks for the market's best dividend-growth stocks and Extreme Value which focuses on the safest stocks in the market: great businesses trading at steep discounts. Dan's strategy of finding safe, cheap, and profitable stocks has earned him a loyal following – as well as one of the most impressive track records in the industry.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Can LinkedIn Break Higher?

With shares of LinkedIn (NASDAQ:LNKD) trading around $224, is LNKD an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

LinkedIn is a professional network on the Internet with more than 90 million members in over 200 countries and territories. Through the company's platform, members are able to create, manage, and share their professional identity online as well as build and engage with their professional network, access shared knowledge and insights, and find business opportunities. It’s platform also provides members with applications and tools to search, connect and communicate with business contacts, learn about career opportunities, join industry groups, research organizations, and share information. Networking and social contact is rising in importance for consumers and companies all around the world.

LinkedIn, the professional social network, posted third-quarter earnings that came in above expectations, but shares still fell due to lower expectations for the fourth quarter. The Wall Street Journal reports that LinkedIn has been growing by leaps and bounds since going public in 2011, but fourth-quarter revenue is only expected to grow between 37 percent and 38 percent, a sharp drop from the 56 percent growth seen in the third quarter. The company said the slowdown is due to faster-than-expected growth the company has seen recently. LinkedIn's membership grew 38 percent from third quarter of last year.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

LinkedIn stock has been surging higher in the past several months. The stock is currently trading at all time high prices and looks ready to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Linkedin is trading in between its rising key averages, which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

LNKD

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of LinkedIn options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

LinkedIn Options

45.64%

23%

21%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

November Options

Average

Average

December Options

Average

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, all neutral over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on LinkedIn’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for LinkedIn look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2012 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

50.00%

137.50%

400.00%

604.00%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

55.92%

59.37%

72.29%

117.68%

Earnings Reaction

-9.01%*

10.60%

-12.93%

21.26%

LinkedIn has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with LinkedIn’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has LinkedIn stock done relative to its peers, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Monster Worldwide (NYSE:MWW), and sector?

LinkedIn

Facebook

Google

Monster Worldwide

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

102.10%

87.27%

46.24%

-21.90%

54.42%

LinkedIn has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

LinkedIn allows consumers, companies, and groups to network worldwide from the comfort of their computers. A recent earnings release left investors pleased sinced it exceeded expectations. The stock has been surging higher in the past several months and is now trading at all time highs. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been rising, which has kept investors in the company pleased. Relative to its peers and sector, LinkedIn has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for LinkedIn to continue to OUTPERFORM.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

What's Beyond Fracking?

Today, Neil George, editor of By George, discusses the hot-button topic of oil fracking and explores alternative companies that offer alternative solutions.

SPEAKER 1:  My guest today is Neil George.  Thanks for joining us.  Neil thanks for being here.  It’s so good to see you again.

NEIL:  Nancy, it’s a pleasure.  I’m always thrilled to be on the Moneyshow.com network. 

SPEAKER 1:  Thank you.  Let’s talk about your recent columns about beyond fracking.  I mean fracking is kind of a hot spot with people these days.

NEIL:  It has been Nancy and a lot of people are making a lot of money, a lot of oil companies, especially smaller and mid-size firms have gone into areas throughout the country and therefore have been able to extract a lot more oil and gas.  A lot of these companies are in the master limited partnerships, MLPs.  They have been generating a lot of income, helping out investors, but at the same time, Nancy, we’ve also had a lot of concerns over some of the potential environmental impacts…

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SPEAKER 1:  The transportation of it.

NEIL:  Well we have transportation of it, we also have the idea of fracking is potentially causing some seismic activity in Ohio.  The EPA has recently released a study looking at some of the methane contamination of ground water wells in Pennsylvania and while it’s not necessarily conclusive yet, there are enough concerns that people need to be thinking about the liability and the potential liability of what’s happening in the fracking market.

SPEAKER 1:  Plus it uses a lot of water, right?

NEIL:  It uses a lot of water and as we’ve also been seeing a lot more discussion, even though many parts of the U.S., particularly back in the east, have been seeing a tremendous amount of rain throughout so far this year, other parts of the country, particularly in the west and through the Colorado river basin have seen a lot of drought.  We’ve seen a dramatic drop in river traffic, and so as a result water is still very much one of those mispriced resources that are causing concern.  So the idea, if we can look at fracking and say okay that’s done well but we basically can also look at the idea that fracking is not necessarily the ultimate form of extracting oil.

SPEAKER 1:  Nor the only.

NEIL:  And nor the only.  There’s another way.  That is a technology that came from the 1970s that I think is going to replace a great deal of what the fanfare has been surrounding the fracking industry.

SPEAKER 1:  And what is that?

NEIL:  Well Nancy, the idea that if you call fracking is not a new technology, even though many of us see the near-term effects more recently, the idea that there is another technology that came out of the 1970s.  You remember 1974, although you were probably a little tike at that point.

SPEAKER 1:  I was just three.  I lied.

NEIL:  The idea of that in 1974 we had the OPEC Oil Embargo and in response to that the Nixon Administration put a price cap on oil and therefore we created a lot of scarcity, the long lines at the gas station, and odd and even purchasing rights.  It was a bad time, but the idea in the legislation there was a little bit of a loop hole in which Nixon told the oil companies if you find more oil that you don’t know about right now you can charge whatever you want for it and therefore a few oil companies including Amerada Hess and Occidental put their scientists out in the field and they said how can we get some more oil and they came up with this way of injecting carbon dioxide into various shale and rock formations and rather than breaking things up the C02 effectively kind of crept through into the various crevices of the rocks and the clay formation and it basically lubricates the oil, if you can picture this, therefore the oil just sort of seeps out from the cracks.

SPEAKER 1:  It’s not so thick.

NEIL:  Not so thick but back then the problem was it also brought a lot of water up to it and therefore you had this oily watery mix that was unusable.  They kind of said okay this was a great idea.  It didn’t work, let’s try something else.  Fast forward into the last few years.  There have been a handful of companies that have been experimenting with the so called de-watering of oil because there are other naturally oil formations that also have a lot of water with it, and because of that newer technology people have now gone back to what Amerada Hess and Occidental did back in the 1970s and now are starting to experiment with the CO2 extraction process.  The idea that we’re starting to see some of the first fields that are occurring in Texas and in through New Mexico and so forth and also potentially parts of Oklahoma with some of these newer field technologies and the idea that U.S. agencies kind of track the amount of oil that’s produced are saying this could potentially be significantly higher than our existing production.  It will be multiples of what we’re seeing in the fracking part as far as contributing to oil supplies.  This is going to be quite big.

SPEAKER 1:  And you don’t have the problems with fracking.

NEIL:  And you don’t have the problems.  On top of that, the idea that we can take CO2, which some people consider a pollutant and basically place it in the ground and gets more out of it, we’re going to make a lot of people happy that are believers in that whole global warming thing.

SPEAKER 1:  Sure and who are the leaders in that?

NEIL:  Well Nancy the key thing is that all of us create CO2.  I’m doing it right now speaking to you and I apologize for that, but the idea that CO2 is both a naturally sourced as well as its produced out of smokestacks.

SPEAKER 1:  Right, greenhouse gases.

NEIL:  Greenhouse gases, and so the idea is you want to look at companies that are involved in the extraction and the delivery process.  One of my favorites right now that is in the forefront of this industry is Kinder Morgan Energy Partners.  KMP is the symbol.  It’s a master limited partnership, pays about 6.4%, so it’s a dividend payer as well and it also has pipelines that deliver natural gas and oil, but what they also have is Arizona.  There is a massive dome of naturally occurring CO2.  They’ve hooked up a pipe to that and put that pipe into the fields that are using this now in Texas and they’re extracting every little molecule out of this thing and pumping it over.

SPEAKER 1:  Very interesting.

NEIL:  It’s basically working quite well.  They also are partnering with Southern Corp, the utility down in Georgia and so forth, along with Siemens to put some equipment on top of their smokestacks and build it, extract it, and process it, and pipe it.

SPEAKER 1:  Interesting.

NEIL:  And therefore they’re also working on getting some carbon credits from the Europeans and some goodwill with the EPA, and then lastly there’s one of the companies in the refining business and I know refiners had a good run now where there’s a little bit of concern right now, but Valero, VLO, the company is working some of their other operations along with Air Products Company to be able to in the refining process you create CO2 and so they can effectively capture that CO2, again get carbon credits, and be able to turn around and deliver that into the oil industry.  Those are some of the key players in this industry and I think a lot of your viewers are going to be learning more about in the coming year, but you can get in now and I think I would start with KMP first.

SPEAKER 1:  Wonderful.  Thank you, Neil.

NEIL:  Thanks Nancy.

SPEAKER 1:  Thanks for being with us on the Moneyshow.com Video Network. 

Thursday, November 21, 2013

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Where can investors find the best growth stocks? All over place, if you know where to look, Jim Cramer said on "Mad Money" Tuesday.

In the biotech space, Cramer called out Regeneron (REGN) as one such stock -- it has growth today and, thanks to a robust pipeline of new drugs, for many years to come. The oil patch is littered with high-growth stocks, including EOG Resources (EOG), Cramer continued.

Restaurants Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) and Starbucks (SBUX) both have growth, as do retailers Michael Kors (KORS), which delivered a 49% increase in profits and a 23% increase in sales this quarter. Cramer said just about any stock that deals with mobile, social media or the cloud is growing like gangbusters -- which leads right to this week's Twitter IPO. Just a few weeks ago, Cramer noted, he was at the high end of the range, saying Twitter could be worth up to $20 billion. But today, despite nothing factually changing, $20 billion seems at the low end of the range, with some calling for valuations as high as $50 billion for Twitter. Cramer said that's a recipe for investors to get hurt, a la the Facebook (FB) IPO last year. He cautioned that the big boys are betting big that uninformed investors will be willing to pay anything for shares of Twitter -- which is why he's once again reminding everyone there are prices at which every stock just becomes uninvestable. Cramer said he's willing to pay up to $28 a share for Twitter and not a penny more. Executive Decision: In the "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer sat down with Dr. Ron Cohen, president and CEO of Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR), a stock that's up 31% so far in 2013 and just delivered a 16-cents-a-share earnings beat. Cohen said sales of Acorda's multiple sclerosis drug, Ampyra, is the engine that's helping to drive the company forward and Acorda is very fortunate to have such a successful product. Acorda is not a one-hit wonder, however, as the company now has six drugs in clinical studies, including new formulations of ingredients of Amypra that may treat strokes and other conditions.

Top 5 Penny Stocks To Buy Right Now: Smith Micro Software Inc.(SMSI)

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Investors Capital Holdings, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in the United States. It provides broker-dealer services in support of trading and investment in securities, such as corporate stocks and bonds, the U.S. government securities, municipal bonds, mutual funds, and variable annuities, as well as variable life insurance, including provision of market information, Internet trading and portfolio tracking facilities, and records management. The company also offers investment advisory services, such as asset allocation and portfolio rebalancing services. Investors Capital Holdings, Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is based in Lynnfield, Massachusetts.

Top 5 Penny Stocks To Buy Right Now: Kulicke and Soffa Industries Inc.(KLIC)

Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells capital equipment and expendable tools used to assemble semiconductor devices, including integrated circuits, high and low powered discrete devices, light-emitting diodes, and power modules. It also services, maintains, repairs, and upgrades its equipment. The company operates in two segments, Equipment and Expendable Tools. The Equipment segment manufactures and sells a line of ball bonders, heavy wire wedge bonders, stud bumpers, and die bonders. Its Ball bonders are used to connect very fine wires, primarily made of gold or copper, between the bond pads of the semiconductor device or die, and the leads on its package; Heavy wire wedge bonders are used in the power semiconductor and automotive power module markets; and Die bonders are used to attach a die to the substrate or lead frame, which will house the semiconductor device. This segment?s Stud bumpers mechanically apply bumps to die, while still in the wafer format, for some variants of the flip chip assembly process. The Expendable Tools segment manufactures and sells various expendable tools for a range of semiconductor packaging applications. Its products include capillaries, bonding wedges, and saw blades. The company?s customers primarily comprise semiconductor device manufacturers, outsourced semiconductor assembly and test providers, other electronics manufacturers, and automotive electronics suppliers in the United States and the Asia/Pacific region. Kulicke and Soffa Industries sells its products through manufacturers? representatives and distributors. The company was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, chip equipment maker Kulicke and Soffa Industries (NASDAQ: KLIC  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

Top 5 Penny Stocks To Buy Right Now: (CTEI)

Cemtrex, Inc. designs, engineers, assembles, and sells emission monitoring equipment and instruments, and air filtration and environmental control products to power plants, refineries, chemical plants, and cement plants, as well as to municipalities, hospitals, and federal and state governmental agencies. Its emission monitoring systems are installed at the exhaust stacks of industrial facilities and are used to measure the outlet flue gas concentrations of regulated pollutants. The company offers opacity monitors for stack opacity and dust measurements; direct-extractive and dilution-extractive continuous emission monitor equipment and systems that are applicable for utilities, industrial boilers, FGD systems, SCR-NOx control, furnaces, gas turbines, process heaters, incinerators, and process controls; ammonia analyzers for monitoring ammonia, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide by process analyzers that utilize UV absorbance techniques for detection; and mercury analyzer s. It also provides a line of air filtration and environmental control equipment to remove dust, corrosive fumes, mists, hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, submicron particles, and particulate from industrial exhausts and boilers; clean noxious and acid gases from industrial exhaust stacks prior to discharging to the atmosphere; and control emissions from construction facilities, mining operations, and dryer exhausts. In addition, the company markets technologies for controlling greenhouse gases, such as methane from coal mines; and assists project owners in selling carbon credits. Further, it offers replacement and spare parts, and repair and refurbishment services for emission monitoring systems. The company was formerly known as Diversified American Holding, Inc. and changed its name to Cemtrex, Inc. in December 2004. Cemtrex Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Farmingdale, New York.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Entrepreneurs, give thanks for lessons learned

This is my favorite time of the year. It's that time when I break out the music, decorate the house and pull out all of the DVDs to usher in the holidays. Thanksgiving and the preparations around getting ready for that big day of feasting is how it all begins. It opens the season of giving thanks for the good things in life.

It's not always easy charting the entrepreneurial waters and some days are better than others. But in spite of any difficulty, every day new folks get started in business and existing small business owners continue to push forward to higher levels.

But no matter where we fit on the business ownership ladder, we have learned a few lessons and applied them. Lessons learned allow us to grow into our highest potential. And, I like to take the Thanksgiving season to review a few things that I am thankful for, maybe there's a thing or two in my list that fits you:

Purpose. I am eternally grateful for maintaining a sense of purpose that serves as a guiding light and keeps me motivated to keep on keeping on no matter how tough things seem to be.

Set reachable goals. I am grateful I learned early that in order to reach my larger goals I needed to set smaller goals that I could more easily manage.

Avoiding negative thoughts. This one is not easy but has been an important step for me. Realizing the difference between what is a fact and what is an opinion (fact: it's raining: opinion: it's a nasty day) has helped me a lot. Remember opinions are many and facts are few. Don't be swayed by the opinions of other.

Holding on to self-confidence. I'm grateful for recognizing that self-confidence like self-esteem is not a steady state; it comes and goes depending on the situation I find myself in. But I can summon it to center stage whenever needed, by mentally recalling one of the many tiny successes in my life.

Balance. I am grateful to be able to recognize the telltale signs of imbalance – lack of energy, irritability, over or under eating just t! o name a few. And I'm even more grateful for being able to realize that scheduled quiet time is needed to evaluate situations and what is necessary to get back into balance.

Learning. I'm grateful to be able to recognize that success depends on consistent learning. And if I stop learning, I stop living.

Support. I am grateful for the ability to bring people into my life that can help me to have a more successful life: mentors, advocates, coaches when needed, good employees and of course the necessary subcontractors that helps me to have more time for myself.

I once read somewhere that courage is the willingness to take risks. It has been the people who have crossed my path that have either cheered me on to have courage or forced me to have the courage to make the tough decisions I've faced. Some of these folks have been friends, some have been foes, but all have been beneficial. And I'm grateful for all of them.

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No matter where you are in the scheme of things -- new startup entrepreneur, well-established small business owner, or a team player in the business world -- I believe that there have to be at least one or two of the above listed things that you can relate to.

And finally, I am most grateful to have the opportunity to come into your life each week through this column and share my ideas, feelings and life's experiences. And I appreciate the many e-mails, phone calls and letters that you share with me.

May your holiday season be filled with joy, laughter and prosperity.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Gladys Edmunds, founder of Edmunds Travel Consultants in Pittsburgh, is an author and coach/consultant in business development. Her column appears Wednesdays. E-mail her at gladys@gladysedmunds.com. An archive of her columns is here. Her website is gladysedmunds.com.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Does Exxon Mobil Have a Bright Future?

With shares of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) trading around $95, is XOM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Exxon Mobil is a manufacturer and marketer of commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and a range of specialty products. The company has a number of divisions and affiliates with names that include ExxonMobil, Exxon, Esso, or Mobil that operate or market products in the United States and other countries of the world. Exxon Mobil's principal business is energy, involving exploration for and production of crude oil and natural gas; manufacture of petroleum products; and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products.

Exxon Mobil shares are up in premarket trading as Warren Buffett's conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKA)(NYSE:BRKB), bought 40.1 million shares in the oil major, making the company Exxon's sixth-largest shareholder. The stake is worth $3.45 billion, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seen by Reuters. Buffett bought the stake in Exxon in the second quarter but received SEC permission to not reveal the buy until now, a move he sometimes employs to prevent investors from copying him, Reuters said.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Exxon Mobil stock has remained in a range over the last several years. The stock is currently trading near highs for the year and looks poised to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Exxon Mobil is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

XOM

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Exxon Mobil options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Exxon Mobil Options

15.20%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Exxon Mobil’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Exxon Mobil look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

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2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-14.35%

-54.55%

6.00%

11.33%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-2.41%

-16.41%

-12.29%

-5.29%

Earnings Reaction

0.91%

-1.08%

-1.52%

0.07%

Exxon Mobil has seen mixed earnings and decreasing revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been generally pleased with Exxon Mobil’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Exxon Mobil stock done relative to its peers, BP (NYSE:BP), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDSA), and sector?

Exxon Mobil

BP

Chevron

Royal Dutch Shell

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

8.97%

13.16%

10.73%

-2.45%

8.60%

Exxon Mobil has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Exxon Mobil is a provider of essential commodity products and services that people and companies use around the world. The companys shares are up in premarket trading as Warren Buffett's conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, bought 40.1 million shares in the oil major, making the company Exxon's sixth largest shareholder. The stock has been trading sideways for a couple of years, however, it’s currently trading near highs for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been mixed while revenues have been decreasing yet, investors are still generally pleased with recent earnings announcements . Relative to its peers and sector, Exxon Mobil has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Exxon Mobil To OUTPERFORM.

Monday, November 18, 2013

A Drug Company Addicted to Growth

Print FriendlyAs America’s baby boomers grow older, complaints of chronic pain are on the rise.

A report released last year by the Institute of Medicine, one of the United States National Academies, found that about 100 million Americans reported suffering from some form of chronic pain in the past year at a total societal cost of nearly $635 billion. More people suffer from chronic pain in any given year than those who suffer from diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer combined.

As chronic pain has become more prevalent in America, so have the opioid pain relievers most commonly used to treat it. Between 1999 and 2008, the sale of such drugs increased by 300 percent while the number of prescriptions written for them shot up from about 75.5 million to 209.5 million.

Unfortunately, opioid pain relievers act on the same neurological pathways as heroin, making them highly addictive and increasing the potential for abuse. It’s estimated that in 2011, nearly 2 million people in the US alone meet the generally accepted criteria for opioid abuse or dependence.

Amid the growing use and misuse of opioid pain relievers, the race is on to create effective, opioid-like pain relievers with lower potential for abuse.

Mallinckrodt PLC (NYSE: MNK), which resulted from Covidien’s (NYSE: COV) pharmaceutical business spinoff this past June, is leading the charge in that arena.

Mallinckrodt operates in several channels: it manufacturers active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), which it markets to other pharmaceutical companies; uses its APIs to develop and manufacture its own branded and generic drugs; and has a global medical imaging businesses that develops, manufactures and sells contrast media and delivery systems, including nuclear imaging agents.

Since the company’s spinout, it has made a modest gain of just 5.7 percent, largely thanks to the fact that the company’s 18! 0-day exclusivity period on generic Concerta has expired and will lose its protections next year. Because of that looming expiration, management has issued earnings per share guidance significantly below this year’s earnings.

The earnings downgrade has created an attractive entry point for investors to take advantage of four new drugs that the company will introduce to the market over the next 18 months or so.

Two new branded products, Xartemix XR and Pennsaid, have been submitted to the FDA for approval and are designed to treat acute and moderate-to-severe pain with abuse-deterrent characteristics that make them excellent alternatives to currently used opioids with high abuse potential. The company’s new formulation of its Concerta pain medication is also currently under review by the FDA and all three drugs are scheduled for launch by the end of next year.

According to data from Mallinckrodt, the acute pain market is valued at nearly $3 billion, with $1.2 billion worth of prescriptions written annually in the company’s target market. If it offers attractive alternatives to opioids, it can snag a large share of that spending for itself in fairly short order, particularly by targeting the specialized pain treatment practices that have sprung up around the country. Specializing in treating patients with chronic pain, those practices will be eager for less additive alternative pain treatments, which will ultimately reduce their potential legal liability.

Thanks to aggressive patenting strategies, Mallinckrodt will enjoy patent protections on its new products through 2032. Although they won’t render the company’s products bulletproof, those protections will at least reduce the potential for new competition to enter the market.

One of the company’s key growth strategies will be to heavily invest in research and development to exploit its patent portfolio in less addictive pain medications.

In addition to those new drugs, Mallinck! rodt also! has a few other competitive advantages that make it attractive. Through its generics and API businesses, the company currently holds a 40 percent share in controlled substances as defined by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), through licenses it holds to manufacture those drugs. In particular, it holds a 32 percent market share of DEA schedule II and III opiate compounds.

Mallinckrodt is also the only non-Asian based manufacturer of acetaminophen, the active ingredient in over-the-counter pain relievers such as Tylenol.

Most significantly, about a quarter of the company’s revenues are generated by its nuclear imaging segment. This segment is one of only two manufacturers of generators that convert molybdenum-99 into technetium-99 in the US and one of only three in Europe. Given the extremely sensitive nature of that technology, the emergence of any new competitors in that field is extremely unlikely, especially in light of heavy regulatory controls in place.

Because of these existing advantages, Mallinckrodt should be able to hold its own in terms of earnings over the next year. At the same time, it will draw growing amounts of investor attention as its new products enjoy likely FDA approval.

Although its shares will likely remain volatile over the next few months, Mallinckrodt’s solid long-term prospects rate it a buy up to 56.

Saturday, November 16, 2013

iPhone 5S Teardown: What's Inside

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Web site iFixit took a look inside the newly-launched Apple (AAPL) iPhone 5s. It found all the usual suspects, but did find one surprise.

Apple (AAPL) has included a Complementary Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor (CMOS) chip for the TouchID. The sensor technology uses the technology from AuthenTec, which Apple purchased over a year ago.

The camera chip, which makes the iSight camera run, is most likely from Sony (SNE), as the DNL markings are consistent with previous Sony housing, according to the Web site and Jim Morrison, vice president of the Technology Analysis Group at Chipworks.

Further tearing down the iPhone 5s, iFixit found a Murata 339S0205 Wi-Fi module, based off Broadcom's (BRCM) BCM4334. Broadcom also has its BCM5976 touchscreen controller inside the phone. There's also the other usual players, including SK Hynix, providing the NAND Flash, Qualcomm (QCOM), which is providing the PM8018 RF power management IC, MDM9615M LTE Modem, and WTR1605L LTE/HSPA+/CDMA2K/TDSCDMA/EDGE/GPS transceiver. Longstanding Apple partner TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT) has space in the iPhone 5s, supplying the TQM6M6224 chip. There also chipsets inside from Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) (77810, 77355), Avago Technologies (AVGO) (A790720, A7900) and Texas Instruments' (TXN) 37C64G1 chip. There's also several chipsets from Apple, including the much talked-about 64-bit A7 chip, based on ARM Holdings (ARM) ARMv8 instruction set. Apple 338S1216 and 338S120L are also included. Difficult to find, however, is the M7 co-processor that Apple talked up at the launch. iFixit believes the M7 could be built into the A7, and is not actually a separate chip. --Written by Chris Ciaccia in New York >Contact by Email. Follow @Chris_Ciaccia

Friday, November 15, 2013

USD/JPY Rallies Above Key 100 Level After Finance Minister Aso Comments

USD/JPY rallied to its highest levels since September 11, after Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso said it was important to keep foreign exchange intervention as a policy option.

Speaking in parliament on Thursday, Aso said "Japan must have tools to counter speculative moves in the currency market."

Aso's remarks emphasized the Japanese government's commitment to stimulate the economy with a weaker yen. Concerns over the health of the Japanese economy heightened after annualized GDP growth slowed in the third quarter.

While the yen softened after Aso's remarks, Japanese shares rallied, with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average closing at its highest level since May. Depreciation of the yen aids Japanese exporters, making their products cheaper in foreign markets.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe entered office in 2012 with a plan to control the strength of the yen, his broader strategy for economic growth often referred to in the press as "Abenomics." In April, the Bank of Japan announced their large scale bond-buying program geared to stimulate the Japanese economy and prevent deflation.

The program succeeded in weakening the yen initially, causing a substantial softening of the Japanese currency.

However, the yen stabilized somewhat as concerns over military intervention in Syria and the US debt crisis caused investors to move to the currency as a safe haven.

Meanwhile, in the United States yesterday's comments from Janet Yellen, U.S. President Barack Obama's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, suggested that a taper of the Fed's $85 billion a month bond-buying program may not come in December.

In her confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Yellen said "We have made good progress, but we have farther to go to regain the ground lost in the crisis and the recession."

Addressing the dual mandate of the Fed, to pursue maximum employment and stable prices, Yellen said "unemployment is down from a peak of 10 percent, but at 7.3 percent in October, it is still too high, reflecting a labor market and economy performing far short of their potential. At the same time, inflation has been running below the Federal Reserve's goal of 2 percent and is expected to continue to do so for some time."

Looking at the USD/JPY daily chart we can see that price has broken out above trend line resistance and is again trading above the key psychological level of 100.

usdjpy115.png

Get all the #premarket info by listening in to Benzinga's morning show at 8:00 am EST Monday-Friday!

Posted-In: Shinzo Abe Taro Aso yenNews Forex Economics Federal Reserve Markets Best of Benzinga

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Thursday, November 14, 2013

How To Trade The News

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Two savage bear markets within the first decade of this millennium have made many investors question the wisdom of adhering to a "buy and hold" strategy for stocks. Although equity markets may display a sustained upward trend over long time periods, it's the intermittent tailspins – such as the 50% plunges endured by most major markets during the 2008-09 global credit crisis – that test the fortitude of any investor.

Trading the news, then, should be an integral component of your investing strategy. While day traders may trade the news several times in a trading session, longer-term investors might do so only occasionally. Regardless of your investing horizon, learning to trade the news is an essential skill for astute portfolio management and long-term performance.

Classifying News News can be broadly classified into two categories:

Periodic or recurring – News that is issued at regular intervals. For example, interest rate announcements by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, economic data releases and quarterly earnings reports from companies all fall into this category. Unexpected or one-time – This category includes "bolts from the blue" such as terrorist attacks or sudden geopolitical flare-ups, as well as abrupt market developments on the economic or financial front like the threat of debt default by an indebted nation. Unexpected news is more likely to be adverse than favorable. News can be specific to a particular stock or something that affects the broad market.

Trading the News Let's use a few examples to demonstrate these concepts:

1. Federal Reserve rate announcement: The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate announcements have always been among the biggest market-moving events. But in 2013, the Fed's moves assumed unparalleled importance, as investors waited with bated breath to see if the central bank would continue to inject $85 billion monthly into the U.S. economy through bond purchases (the third round of quantitative easing or QE3), or if it would slow the pace of these purchases. Given that U.S. equity indices were at record highs in October 2013, an investor with a substantial long position in U.S. stocks who was looking to hedge potential downside risk could have done the following right after the Fed's Oct. 30 announcement:

Trimmed positions in highly profitable equity positions to take some money off the table. With market volatility near multi-year lows at that time, the investor could have purchased puts either on specific stocks in the portfolio or on a broad market index like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100. Purchasing puts gives the investor the right to sell a stock for an agreed-upon price at some future time. If the security's market price falls below the agreed-upon price, the investor gains by selling at the higher contractual price. Bought a certain amount of inverse exchange traded funds (ETFs) – which move in the opposite direction of the broad market or a specific sector – to protect portfolio gains. While these reactive moves would typically be carried out after the Fed announcement, a proactive investor could implement these same steps in advance of the Fed statement. This reactive or proactive approach to an important event or piece of news, of course, depends on a number of factors, such as whether the investor has a high degree of conviction about the market's near-term direction, risk tolerance, trading approach (passive or active) and so on.

2. U.S. employment situation summary (the "jobs report"): In terms of economic data releases, few are more important than the U.S. jobs report. Traders and investors closely watch the employment level, since it has a substantial influence on consumer confidence and spending, which accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy. Jobs numbers that miss economists' forecasts are generally interpreted as signs of incipient economic weakness, while payroll numbers that surge past forecasts are seen as strength. In the summer of 2013, investors were unfazed by payroll numbers that came in below expectations, in the belief that any signs of economic weakness would cause the Fed to keep QE3 going. The investor playbook for trading jobs data in 2013 could be easily based on predictable market reaction, which was as follows:

Payroll numbers below expectations: Implies that the Fed would be forced to keep interest rates low for an extended time period. The impact on specific asset classes was typically as shown in the table:
Asset/Instrument

Immediate Impact

Equities



Bonds



US dollar



Volatility



Gold

↔ (no clear trend)

Commodities

↔ (no clear trend)

Payroll numbers above expectations: Implies that the Fed may scale back the pace of asset purchases, which could send bond yields and market interest rates higher.
Asset/Instrument

Immediate Impact

Equities



Bonds



US dollar



Volatility



Gold

↔ (no clear trend)

Commodities

↔ (no clear trend)

An investor could use these market reactions to formulate an appropriate trading strategy to implement either in advance of the jobs report or after its release.

3. Earnings reports: It is generally advisable to have a trading strategy in advance of an earnings report, because a stock can bounce around in a much wider range post-earnings, as compared to the swings in an index after a data release. Imagine having a huge short position in a stock and watching it soar 40% in the after-market because its earnings were much better than expected.

Trading earnings reports may not be required for every stock in one's portfolio, but it may be necessary for a stock where the investor has a fairly large position, whether long or short. In this case, the investor needs to weigh the merits of leaving the position unchanged over the earnings report or making changes prior to it. Factors that should play a part in this decision include:

The current state of the overall market (bullish or bearish); Investor sentiment for the sector to which the stock belongs; Current level of short interest in the stock; Earnings expectations (too high or comfortably low); Valuations for the stock; Its recent and medium-term price performance; Earnings and outlook reported by the competition, etc. For example, an investor with a 15% position in a big-cap technology stock that is trading at multi-year highs may decide to trim positions in it ahead of the earnings report, so that it now constitutes 10% of the portfolio. This may be preferable to taking the risk of a steep decline post-earnings if the stock is unable to meet investors' high expectations. An alternative option could be to buy puts to hedge downside risk. While this would enable the investor to leave the position unchanged at 15% of the portfolio, this hedging activity would incur a significant cost.

It may also make sense to trade an earnings report for a stock where the investor does not have a position but (rightly or wrongly) has a high degree of conviction. Key points to note are – avoid taking an unduly large position, and have a risk mitigation strategy in place to cap losses if the trade does not work out.

4. Bolts from the blue: What should you do if the screens suddenly flash news of a terrorist attack somewhere in the United States, or war looks imminent between two nations in the volatile Middle East? While this is one time when you may need to be proactive to protect your investment capital, a kneejerk reaction to sell everything and take to the hills may not be the best course of action. Over the years, financial markets have demonstrated a great deal of resilience by taking in stride the occasional terrorist attack, such as the bomb blasts at the Boston Marathon's conclusion on April 15, 2013.

During times of geopolitical uncertainty, it may be prudent to rotate out of more speculative instruments and into higher-quality investments, and consider hedging downside risk through options and inverse ETFs. While you should scale back your equity exposure if it is uncomfortably high, bear in mind that in the majority of cases, the short-term corrections caused by unexpected geopolitical or macroeconomic events have proved to be quintessential long-term buying opportunities.

Tips for New News Traders Know the dates and times of important events: Information on the dates and times of key market events such as FOMC announcements, economic data releases and earnings reports from key companies is readily available online. Know this "calendar of events" in advance. Have a strategy in place beforehand: You should plot your trading strategy in advance, so that you are not forced into making rash decisions in the heat of the moment. Know your exact trading entry and exit points before the action begins. Avoid kneejerk reactions: Rather than kneejerk reactions, make rational investing decisions based on your risk tolerance and investment objectives. This may require you to be a contrarian on occasion, but as successful long-term investors will attest, this is the best approach for successful equity investing. Cap your risk levels: Avoid the temptation of trying to make a fast buck by taking a concentrated long or short position. What if the trade goes against you? Have the courage of your convictions: Assuming you've done your homework, consider adding to an existing position if the stock plunges to a level below its intrinsic value, or conversely, selling out to take profits in a stock that is wildly popular at the moment. See the big picture: Often, investor reaction to a development may not be as expected. For example, Canadian natural gas company EnCana (ECA) slashed its dividend by 65% on Nov. 5, 2013. While a dividend cut of this magnitude would normally send a stock plunging, EnCana actually rallied 3% on the day. This was because investors viewed the dividend cut as a cash-saving measure, and they also approved the company's plans to sell shares in a new royalty company. Don't be swayed by market sentiment: This is a corollary to some of the earlier tips, and it is important enough in its own right. Being overly swayed by market sentiment may result in too many instances of buying high – when euphoria runs rampant – and selling low, when gloom and doom prevails. Consider the plight of the many hapless investors who were so spooked by the unrelenting tide of bad news in 2008 that they exited their equity positions near the lows, incurring massive losses in the process. Numerous investors failed to get back into equities after that horrendous experience, and in the process, missed out on a stunning gain of 166% in the S&P 500 from March 2009 to October 2013. Know when to "fade" the news: Many times it is as important to ignore the news or "fade" it as it is to trade it. Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) is a great example of a stock where ignoring the steady drumbeat of bad news, and focusing instead on its valuations and turnaround prospects, would have paid off handsomely. The stock was trading at a decade-low $11.20 in December 2012, as it was losing market share to online rivals like Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN) and aggressive retailers such as Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT). But as of Nov. 6, 2013, it was the third-best performer on the S&P 500 for the year, having nearly quadrupled in price as profits surged thanks to cost-cutting measures and competitive product pricing. The Bottom Line Trading the news is crucial for positioning your portfolio to take advantage of market moves and boost overall returns.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Bank of England hints at earlier rate rise

LONDON (AP) — British homeowners and businesses could face a rise in interest rates sooner than expected as the economic recovery is gathering pace, the Bank of England indicated Wednesday.

Governor Mark Carney said there were improvements across the board, with unemployment dropping quicker than anticipated — to 7.6%, according to the latest figures.

"For the first time in a long time, you don't have to be an optimist to see the glass as half full," he said as he presented the central bank's quarterly economic report.

The market took that as an indication that interest rates will rise sooner than expected. Britain's main stock index, the FTSE 100, fell 1.4% to 6,635.44, the worst performer in Europe, after Carney's comments.

Even though the markets moved, investors don't expect a rise in interest rates for months, if not years. That's because the bank has vowed not to consider raising its record-low interest rate until unemployment falls below 7%. The latest forecasts suggest the target may be reached by the third quarter of 2015 rather than the original guess of 2016.

Carney went out of his way to say the central bank would not act prematurely.

"It is welcome that the economy is growing again, but a return to growth is not yet a return to normality," Carney said. "Nearly one million more people are out of work than in the years before the financial crisis."

He also said that hitting the 7% threshold would not necessarily trigger an increase in rates. He chuckled at the notion change would be that sudden, and said the bank would make it clear ahead of time what its intentions were, so as to not catch consumers off guard.

"We like to talk," Carney said with a smile.

Carney noted the recovery still faced headwinds, meaning it could yet slow down. The Bank also revised down its forecasts for inflation, which remains its primary policy concern.

As well as holding its main interest rate at a record low of 0.5% since 2009, the bank has pumped 375! billion pounds into the economy to keep market rates low and encourage banks to lend. Yet the British economy remains about 2.5% smaller than it was at the start of 2008, before it fell into the deepest recession since World War II.

Signs of life have emerged of late, notably in the housing sector, which many fear is beginning to overheat, particularly in and around London. Carney tiptoed around questions about whether he feared a housing bubble was developing.

Still, the report comes against the most favorable backdrop for the economy since the onset of the recession — having achieved two successive quarters of growth and inflation only marginally above the 2% target.

"Mark Carney must be thinking that being governor of the Bank of England has been a piece of cake so far!" said Howard Archer Chief UK and European economist for IHS Global Insight.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

'Mighty' Dollar – Data Defends A December Taper

US dollar bulls had all the fun last week. The 17-member single currency came under a three-prong attack – two from the world's primary reserve currency and the other one was a calculated self-inflicted wound. Stateside, non-farm payrolls and GDP for Q3 both exceeded expectations. Furthermore, Draghi and company at the ECB decided to cut its cash rate -0.25% to new historical lows. So far, the verbatim list has contributed to the rally of the ‘mighty buck' against the hapless EUR and other G10 currencies.

However, today the silence is deafening in the currency market as we “remember” and this has allowed the EUR to creep higher. The price action is going against the majority expectations and positions. The partial US market holiday for Veterans Day seems to have temporarily sapped the market momentum, again putting pressure on investor's weak shorts positions.

There is exactly very little on offer to wholly convince consistent active trading. Historically, the first full trading day after a non-farm report tends to end up being the month's quietest trading session. Combined with the partial shutdown for US Memorial Day, today so far is shaping up to be no different. Investors should expect some of the currency moves to have both volume and volatility concerns. The latest EUR demise began on the final day of October when the flash CPI print came in well under the wire at +0.7% vs. +1.1%. The EUR bulls should not be holding out for any upward revisions. History indicates that the flash print is very much “bang-on.”

China's inflation, IP growth both accelerated over the weekend. Inflation is now registered at an eight-month high (+3.2%, y/y) last month, and just below market consensus for +3.3%. One of the bigger contributions to headline numbers continues to be food inflation (+6.5%, y/y), which added +2.1% directly to the headline, while non-food inflation remained at +1.6% and service inflation increased to +3.1%. The PBoC has a tough job maintaining perception.

Will Chinese policy leaders avoid symbolically significant measures, such as interest rate or the reserve requirement ratio to curb their problems or will they continue to drain liquidity through open market operations? Tighter monetary policy has been highlighted by new loan data at CNY506.1b compared with a forecast of CNY600b. The PBoC is obviously worried about inflation in Q4. According to analysts “the slow growth of new loans has been matched by slower growth in the total social-financing aggregate.” This is a broad measure of liquidity throughout the Chinese economy. Obviously the APAC members feel anything that China may implement that impedes growth first.

Meanwhile, Chinese industrial production (IP) growth accelerated to +10.3%, y/y in October, beating the consensus of +10.0%. On seasonally adjusted basis, IP grew by +0.9% mom, higher than its prior of 0.7%. The Yuan was largely steady earlier this morning, as the PBoC guided the currency slightly stronger (6.1390). State banks continue to buy the USD, curbing a rapid Yuan rise. Investors will be expecting headlines from the Third Plenum over the coming weeks – possible financial and economic reform. The four-day meeting officially ends tomorrow. But. Will wide range reform follow that will suit foreign investors? Major reforms are difficult to implement even in an authoritarian system.

The highlight of the week will be Janet Yellen's Senate hearing on Thursday. It should again be the “war of the word” where a percentage of the market expects her to restate her most recent message that “tapering does not mean tightening,” with potential references to forward guidance as a policy tool – by day's end the market continues to search for clarity. The dollar continues to be in safe hands and especially after last weeks US data a December taper remains on the cards, further supporting the “mighty buck” against both the EM and G10 currencies.

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The post ‘Mighty' Dollar – Data Defends A December Taper appeared first on MarketPulse.

The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.

Posted-In: News Futures Forex Global Economics Markets

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Monday, November 11, 2013

4 Things You Should Know About Pre-Approved Credit Card Offers

Credit card offer letterAlamy

Spam email is easy to ignore, delete, or shuffle off to some forgotten corner of your inbox. But physical junk mail is a bit tougher to disregard -- especially when it's a big, bulky envelope from a bank with a pre-approved credit card offer. But just because we see them all the time doesn't mean we know exactly what we're dealing with. Here are some facts you need to know about those pre-approved credit card offers filling up your mailbox. They Don't Hurt Your Credit ... Until You Apply. Most people understand that when you apply for a credit card, mortgage or other loan, the potential lender will check your credit score to see if you qualify. And that inquiry will temporarily lower your score. So if an offer is "pre-approved," does that mean they've done an inquiry and hurt your credit? Well, here's the good news: The "pre-approval" process doesn't actually involve checking your credit report. "You are not 'pre-approved,' you are conditionally approved," explains John Ulzheimer, credit expert at CreditSesame.com. "The reason your name ended up on the list is that they will go to credit reporting agencies and buy those lists." In other words, they sent you that offer because they have a rough idea of where you fall on the credit score spectrum. But this is a "soft inquiry" that doesn't hurt your score; they won't pull your actual credit report unless you apply for the card. You Still Might Get Rejected. So here's the bad news: Since they didn't actually pull your credit report before sending you that offer, you're not as "pre-approved" as it says on the envelope. When you mail in the offer and the bank checks your credit, there's a chance that you won't get approved for the card. This happens more often than you might think, often because the recipients of those offers messed up their credit between when they got put on the pre-approved list and when they actually apply for the card. "If you look at the low-end cards [for people with poor credit], as low as 80 percent of people who are pre-approved actually get approved," says Greg Lull of CreditKarma. "Especially in the low-credit space, a lot can change in six months." If you've got good credit and you're getting a lot of offers for rewards cards, your chances of getting approved are much greater -- more like 95 percent, because people in that range are less prone to making mistakes like late payments. Rather than getting outright rejected for the card, Ulzheimer says it's likely they'll just approve you for a card with terms that aren't as great as you expected. Many of those letters will give you a range of interest rates and credit limits for which you're pre-approved, and your actual credit score will determine where you fall on that spectrum. So what if you apply for one of these pre-approved offers, and then get a card with worse terms -- say, a higher interest rate or a restrictive credit limit? In that case, you could always cancel the card, but that could give a bit of a ding to your credit score: You still have the hard inquiry from the credit check, but now you don't have the benefit of the improved utilization ratio that you get from having more credit. Our advice? First, call up the customer service number on the back of the card and threaten to cancel the account if they don't give you better terms. You Should Probably Shred Them We say "probably" because these offers don't include critical financial information that can be used for identity theft. And without your Social Security number, no one can grab an offer out of your mailbox, fill it out and get a credit card in your name. But there's still a risk of identity theft here. "It is a good idea to go ahead and shred it," says Gerri Detweiler of Credit.com. "I don't think it's the most popular form of identity theft ... But there's a fair amount of ID theft that occurs among family members." A thief rifling through your trash probably won't have the requisite information to get a credit card in your name. But your teenage child or your brother-in-law who's crashing on your couch might be able to dig up your Social Security number, fill out the application and then run roughshod over your credit history with a card in your name. So if you don't want those offers, tear them up or shred them before you throw them out. Or, on second thought... You Can Opt Out of Getting Them Just as there's a do-not-call list for telemarketers, so too can you opt out of receiving credit card offers. It's pretty simple: Just go to OptOutPrescreen.com and tell the major credit bureaus that you'd like them to stop putting you on the lists that they give to banks. You can opt out for five years, or permanently. There are lots of reasons why you might do this. Maybe you're concerned about identity theft. Maybe you care about the environment and don't like how many trees get killed by banks trying to sign you up for credit cards. Or maybe you just think it's a pain in the neck to have to tear up credit card offers. But if you're considering getting a new credit card in the near future, you may want to stay on the list and apply for your next credit card through one of these offers. While there's no guarantee you'll be approved, your chances are certainly better than if you're just browsing the Internet for cards that look good and applying at random. "The average person only gets approved for 30 pecent of the credit cards they apply for, and then you've got that hard inquiry but didn't get credit," points out Lull. By contrast, if you're responding to a pre-approved offer, you already know that you've got a good chance of getting approved.